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ICBC Financial Market Daily Review-February 21, 2017
 

I. Yesterday's News
International News
1. Greece and its international lenders agreed on Monday to let teams of experts work out new reforms to Greek pensions, income tax and labour market that would allow Athens to eventually qualify for more cheap loans, euro zone officials said. Lenders will send experts back to Greece to work out reforms concerning pension, income tax, labour market. Once reforms agreed, IMF to make new debt sustainability report

2. Euro zone consumer confidence fell to -6.2 in February, preliminary data from the European Commission showed on Monday, worse than the -4.9 anticipated in a Reuters poll. January's figure was revised to -4.8 from -4.9. In the wider European Union of 28 countries, consumer confidence dropped 0.9 points to -5.2, the Commission said.

3. The Confederation for British Industry said its total order book balance improved to +8 from +5 in January, better than a median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists for a fall to +3. February's manufacturing output rose to +33, the highest since September 2013, from +26 last month.

4. Japan's exports rose in January at a slower pace than the previous month due to a decline in shipments to the U.S. and the Lunar New Year holidays and as concerns about trade protectionism cast doubts over the outlook. Exports in January rose 1.3 percent from the same period a year ago, less than the median estimate for a 4.7 percent annual increase and slower than a 5.4 percent year-on-year increase in December. It's the second month in a row exports have grown, following 14 straight months of contraction. Meanwhile, imports into the world's third largest economy posted their first increase since December 2014 as oil prices rose following the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' agreement last year to cut production.

5. Tony Blair wants fellow Britons to "rise up" and block or soften Brexit, but it may now be out of their hands -- many Europeans just want them to get on and get out. After their June referendum vote to quit the EU, stunned European leaders insisted Britons were welcome to change their minds. That may have encouraged those like ex-premier Blair who last week challenged Prime Minister Theresa May's plan to launch the process next month and exit in two years. Yet whatever their hopes of legal obstacles or of an electoral backlash, the mood across the rest of the bloc has shifted away. While officially the door remains open to Britain to stay, many on the continent would not welcome a U-turn now.

Domestic News
6. The State Council issued a circular on Feb 17 to innovate the investment and financing system regarding rural infrastructure, in a bid to boost rural economic and social development. Efforts will be made to break institutional barriers and encourage private investment in rural infrastructure, according to the circular. The target of the plan is to build a diversified and robust investment and financing system.

7. A new normalization in economic growth asked for new requirements for monetary policy regulation and financial innovation, Sun Guofeng, director of the PBOC's Financial Research Institute, wrote in an article. He said, monetary policy need to provide a neutral and accommodative financial environment to upgrade economic structure in which direct regulation shifts into indirect regulation, and number-oriented transfers into price controls. Meanwhile, the central bank should reinforce counter-cyclical regulation by providing liquidity through multiple ways.

8. The drawbacks of a stereotypical fiscal spending structure worsened amid economic downturn, payment imbalance and intensified risks. It needs adjustment in decision-making, system and technique, including policy design, system reform and state governance, to resolve this problem.

9.China aims to cap total primary energy consumption at around 4.4 billion tonnes of coal equivalent, raise the ratio of non-fossil fuel consumption in its energy mix to 14.3 percent, and cut total energy consumption per unit domestic production by 5.0 percent year-on-year in 2017, the National Energy Administration (NEA) said. 

10. China's central bank reiterated in its 2016 monetary policy report that it will implement a prudent and neutral monetary policy while keeping liquidity basically stable. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) said it will work to strike a better balance between stabilizing growth, adjusting structure, curbing asset bubbles and preventing risks, so as to provide a "neutral and moderate" monetary environment for supply-side structural reform.

II. Market Overview
FX
1. Global Market
The pound rose against most major currencies on Monday, snapping a three-day fall versus the euro at the start of another week likely to be dominated by questions about how Britain will leave the EU and the impact of Brexit on the economy. The upper house of parliament has begun debating the bill. Opposition and independent members of the Lords are seeking amendments to force the government to give more regular updates on the divorce talks and to secure guarantees for the rights of EU citizens living in Britain. The pound was enjoying its best day since the start of the month, up 0.5 percent against the dollar at $1.2472 and 0.3 percent higher at 85.16 pence per euro after three days in the red. The pound was up 0.4-0.6 percent against the Swiss franc and Japanese yen.

2. Home Market
China's yuan firmed slightly against the dollar on Monday, with the trading range narrowed down sharply and the central parity rates tumbling almost 290 points, the largest one-day decline since January 9. Trading was thinned due to lack of drivers. The exchange rates are expected to keep consolidating in near term, traders said.

Precious Metals
Gold firmed on Monday as the dollar softened, although trading was thin due to the U.S. holiday and as markets awaited details on President Donald Trump's tax policy. Spot gold was last at $1,238 an ounce.

Commodities
1.Crude Oil
Oil prices inched higher on Monday, as investor optimism over the effectiveness of producer cuts encouraged record bets on a sustained rally, although growing U.S. output and stubbornly high stockpiles kept price gains in check. Brent futures ended the session up 0.7 percent at $56.18 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 29 cents, or 0.5 percent, at $53.69 in very thin trading. There will be no settlement on Monday for U.S. crude due to the Presidents Day holiday. WTI futures for delivery in March expire Tuesday.

2.Base Metals
The price of copper bounced back above $6,000 a tonne on Monday as a dispute affecting production at the world's second-biggest copper mine worsened, while zinc was boosted by a drop in inventories. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange closed 1.9 percent higher at $6,070 a tonne.

U.S. Treasuries
1. U.S. bonds
U.S. bond market was closed for holiday.

2. Chinese bonds
China's interbank money rates continued to recover earlier on Monday, with spot bonds yields opening down by 3-4 bps. The benchmark 10-year government bond futures rose nearly 0.5 percent during the session. Investors were optimistic over the near-term prospective, while were uncertain in the long run as China's central bank reiterated in its latest policy report that it will implement a prudent and neutral monetary policy despite of lingering pressure of de-leveraging.

Stock Market
1. U.S. Equities
U.S. stock market was closed for holiday.

2. Hong Kong Equities
Hong Kong stocks extended early gains and closed at a 18-month high on Monday, drawing strength from firm mainland stock and commodity markets. The benchmark Hang Seng index added 0.5 percent, to 24,146.08 points, its highest close since Aug. 11, 2015, while the Hong Kong China Enterprises Index gained 0.8 percent, to 10,445.48 points.

3. China Equities
China shares rallied 1.2 percent to a 2-1/2-month high, posting the largest one-day gains in almost 3-1/2 month. New bank shares led the rally boosted by new policy on refinancing at weekend and high expectations on corporate earnings amid a recovery in macro economy. The Shanghai Composite Index gained 1.1.8 percent or 37.88 points to 3,239.96, within the distance of the previous closing high of 3,243.84 hit on Dec. 2, 2016, and the largest one-day gain of 1.37 percent touched on November 10 last year. The trading volume of Shanghai A shares rose to 249.9 billion yuan from 248.3 billion of the previous session.


(2017-02-21)
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