I. Yesterday's News 1. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, pointing to tightening labor market conditions that should support the economy this year. Other data on Thursday showed worker productivity slowing in the fourth quarter, which economists said suggested companies would need to keep hiring to increase output. This is starting to put upward pressure on wages, paving the way for interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve this year. The dollar was trading marginally lower against a basket of currencies, while prices for U.S. government bonds rose. U.S. stocks were trading slightly higher. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 14,000, the Labor Department said. In another report, the Labor Department said worker productivity rose at a 1.3 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, slowing from the prior period's brisk 3.5 percent pace of increase.
2. The Bank of England increased its forecasts for British economic growth in 2017 to 2.0 percent on Thursday, but appeared in no rush to raise interest rates, warning of "twists and turns" on the road out of the European Union. There were signs of a partial split. But the general message from the BoE was that it remained comfortable with its record low rates even as the pound's slide pushes prices up quickly. In response, the pound fell and British government 10-year bond yields headed for their biggest one-day decline in two months, suggesting investors were pushing back their bets on when the BoE might raise rates. The Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to keep rates on hold at a record low of 0.25 percent and to leave its other stimulus programmes unchanged. After Thursday's announcement, financial markets were pricing in a roughly 36 percent chance of a rate hike by the BoE this year, down from 50 percent last week, according to HSBC, while economists said it would probably not happen until mid-2019.
3. Britain will do its utmost to negotiate a divorce deal with the European Union that is mutually beneficial, Brexit minister David Davis said on Thursday, setting out the government's strategy in an official policy document. Introducing the document, Davis said, "We will seek a new strategic partnership.” Davis reiterated May's 12 priorities in the negotiations, and the paper offered some detail on how the British government saw the divorce process, suggesting a phased implementation.
4. The European Union's statistics office Eurostat said industrial producer prices rose 0.7 percent month-on-month in December for a 1.6 percent year-on-year increase -- the latter the highest rate in almost four years. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a rise of 0.4 percent and 1.3 percent respectively.
5. Amazon.com Inc forecast an unexpected dip in operating profit for the current quarter, sending shares down more than 4 percent. Net sales for Amazon rose 22.4 percent to $43.74 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with the average analyst estimate of $44.68 billion. Amazon Web Services, the company's fast-growing and lucrative cloud business, posted a 47 percent jump in revenue to $3.54 billion, but fell short of the average analyst estimate of $3.60 billion.
II. Market Overview FX The U.S. dollar rebounded from its weakest level against a basket of major rivals since mid-November on views that the greenback's longer-term upward trend remained intact, while the ruble surged after the U.S. Treasury adjusted sanctions on a Russian spy agency. That outlook drove the dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major rivals, to last stand up 0.2 percent at 99.807. The euro was last slightly lower against the dollar at $1.0760, easing from an eight-week high of $1.0828 struck in the morning U.S. trading session. The dollar remained down 0.5 percent against the yen at 112.71 yen. The Russian ruble rose to as high as 2.5 percent on the day against the dollar. Most of the gains came after the U.S. Treasury adjusted sanctions on Russian intelligence agency FSB.
Precious Metals Gold prices rose to an 11-week high on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve gave no clear signal on the likelihood of a March interest rate increase in its latest statement, prompting another drop in the U.S. Dollar. Spot gold struck its highest level since Nov. 17 at $1,225.30 an ounce, and was up 0.55 percent at $1,215.81. U.S. gold futures for April delivery settled up 0.9 percent at $1,219.40.
Commodities 1.Crude Oil Oil prices edged lower on Thursday, giving back early gains as traders grew less concerned about tensions between the United States and Iran. Brent futures fell 24 cents, or 0.4 percent, to settle at $56.56 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 34 cents, or 0.6 percent, to settle at $53.54. U.S. gasoline futures fell 2.9 percent.
2.Base Metals Nickel prices hit three-week highs on Thursday after the Philippines ordered the closure of 21 mines, mainly nickel producers that account for about half of output in the world's top ore supplier. Benchmark nickel on the London Metal Exchange closed up 1.4 percent at $10,395 a tonne. Three-month copper ended down 1 percent at $5,886 a tonne. Aluminum finished up 0.6 percent at $1,829.
U.S. Treasuries U.S. Treasuries were steady as investors waited on Friday's employment data for January, which will be evaluated for any new indications on when the Federal Reserve is likely to next raise interest rates. U.S. benchmark 10-year Treasury notes ended little changed on the day to yield 2.47 percent, after yields earlier fell to 2.43 percent. Traders are also preparing for new debt supply next week, when the Treasury Department will sell $62 billion in three-year, 10- and 30-year debt.
Stock Market 1. U.S. Equities U.S. stocks ended little changed on Thursday as the recent rally continued to stall following President Donald Trump's latest comments on trade and the policies he will pursue. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 6.03 points, or 0.03 percent, to 19,884.91, the S&P 500 gained 1.3 points, or 0.06 percent, to 2,280.85 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 6.45 points, or 0.11 percent, to 5,636.20. Trump reiterated his concerns about the trade deal with Canada and Mexico and said he would like to speed up talks to either renegotiate or replace it.
2. Hong Kong Equities Hong Kong stocks fell on Thursday as investors continued to lock in gains after the Federal Reserve stuck to its mildly upbeat view of the U.S. economy but gave no hints of the timing of its next rate move. The benchmark Hang Seng index slid 0.63 percent by the lunch break to 23,170.70 points, while the China Enterprises Index fell 0.64 percent, to 9,694.03 points.
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