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ICBC Global Financial Market Daily Review - January 5, 2017
 

I. Yesterday’s News

1. Almost all Federal Reserve policymakers thought the economy could grow more quickly because of fiscal stimulus under the Trump administration and many were eyeing faster interest rate increases, minutes from the central bank's December meeting showed. The minutes, released on Wednesday, showed how broadly views within the Fed are shifting in response to President-elect Donald Trump's promises of tax cuts, infrastructure spending and deregulation. "Almost all also indicated that the upside risks to their forecasts for economic growth had increased," the minutes stated. But the minutes showed policymakers might signal an even more aggressive path of rate increases if inflationary pressures rose. U.S. stock prices closed higher after the minutes, with the Standard & Poor's 500 index holding a gain of about 0.57 percent. The dollar weakened against the euro and the yen as the dollar index backed off a 14-year high against a basket of currencies.

2. Businesses across the euro zone ended 2016 by ramping up activity at the fastest pace for five-and-a-half years, a survey showed on Wednesday, as a weaker currency boosted demand for their goods and services in December. The expansion, which came alongside companies raising prices at the steepest rate since mid-2011, will be welcomed by policymakers at the European Central Bank, who for years have struggled to lift growth and inflation. IHS Markit's final composite Purchasing Managers' Index for the euro zone rose to 54.4 in December from November's 53.9. That beat a 53.9 flash estimate and took the index to its highest since May 2011.

3. U.S. sales of new cars and trucks hit a record high in 2016, automakers said on Wednesday, and investors bid up shares in the sector as strong consumer confidence and relatively low fuel prices bolstered the industry's outlook. Shares of General Motors Co rose 5.5 percent and Ford Motor Co stock rose 4.6 percent. Autodata Corp said 2016 U.S. auto sales of 17.55 million were 0.4 percent higher than the previous record set in 2015. December sales rose 3 percent, and on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis were 18.43 million vehicles, Autodata said. The results prompted executives from the three biggest sellers in the U.S. market, GM, Ford, and Toyota Motor Corp, , to predict that this year's sales will be near 2016's record levels.

4. Boeing Co said on Wednesday it had booked firm orders for 80 of its 737 MAX 8 aircraft, valued at $8.8 billion at list prices, upping its 2016 tally but leaving it short of its goal. The orders mean the world's biggest plane maker clinched at least 536 net jetliner sales last year compared with its target of selling as many commercial jets as it delivers, a total it puts between 745 and 750. Through November, Boeing had delivered 681 planes. Boeing's shares were up 1.05 percent at $158.62. Up to Tuesday's close, the stock had risen 11.7 percent in the past 12 months.

5. Activity in Britain's construction sector expanded at the fastest rate in nine months in December, boosted by more house building, but sterling's weakness drove the biggest rise in costs in over five years, an industry survey showed on Wednesday. The Markit/CIPS purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 54.2 in December, its strongest since March and well ahead of expectations in a Reuters poll for it to hold steady at November's reading of 52.8. But the figures also highlight the challenge Britain will face this year from sterling's plunge after the June vote to leave the European Union.

II. Market Overview
FX

The dollar fell against the euro and yen on Wednesday, backing off a 14-year high against a basket of currencies with investors cautious about increasing bets on the greenback without fresh clues on the U.S. economy and the timing of interest rate increases. The euro was last up 0.6 percent at $1.0465. The dollar was last down 0.2 percent against the yen at 117.51 after rising to a high of 118.17 yen overnight. The Mexican peso hit its lowest level on record against the greenback, falling more than 2 percent to 21.62 pesos per dollar. The offshore Chinese yuan strengthened to 6.8707, its highest against the dollar since Dec. 6.

Precious Metals

Gold rose to the highest in nearly four weeks on Wednesday as the dollar edged back from a 14-year peak and physical demand from major consumers China and India increased. Spot gold climbed to its highest since Dec. 9 at $1,167.83 an ounce and was almost flat at $1,163.4. U.S. gold futures settled up 0.3 percent at $1,165.30. Among other precious metals, palladium rose by as much as 4.7 percent to $742.60 an ounce, the highest since Dec. 9. While platinum turned down 0.09 percent to $936.25, after rising to a four-week high of $950.10 an ounce.

Commodities
1.Crude Oil

Oil prices rose nearly 2 percent on Wednesday on expectations U.S. crude inventories have dropped and on signs that the world's top oil exporters will stick to agreed output cuts that took effect this week. Global benchmark Brent crude futures rose 99 cents, or 1.8 percent, to settle at $56.46 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 93 cents to end at $53.26 a barrel, also a 1.8 percent gain.

2. Base Metals
Copper rose on Wednesday as the dollar retreated from a 14-year high and Chinese plans to add 2,100 km (746 miles) of track to its railway network this year bolstered demand expectations. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange closed 2.6 percent up at $5,645 a tonne. Zinc closed 3.9 percent up at $2,621 a tonne, lead rose 3.2 percent to $2,079 and nickel finished with a 3.1 percent gain at $10,220. Tin advanced by 0.9 percent to $21,145. Aluminum closed 0.1 percent lower at $1,685.

U.S. Treasuries

U.S. Treasury debt yields slid in choppy trading on Wednesday after minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting struck a more uncertain tone than the market expected, especially with respect to the new administration's fiscal policies. The benchmark U.S. 10-year note was flat in price to yield 2.451 percent. U.S. 30-year bond prices were up 1/32, yielding 3.043 percent. U.S. two-year note yields remained unchanged at 1.230 percent.

Stock Market
1. U.S. Equities

U.S. shares ended higher on Wednesday even after minutes from the Federal Reserve's December meeting showed concerns that quicker economic growth under President-elect Donald Trump could require faster interest rate increases to ward off inflation. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 60.4 point or 0.3 percent to end at 19,942.16, while the S&P 500 gained 12.92 points or 0.57 percent to 2,270.75. The Nasdaq Composite added 47.92 points or 0.88 percent to 5,477.01.

2. Hong Kong Equities

Hong Kong stocks ended slightly lower on Wednesday, snapping a four-session winning streak, as a stronger U.S. dollar added to worries about capital outflows from emerging markets. The Hang Seng index closed down 0.1 percent at 22,134.47 points, while the Hong Kong China Enterprises Index slipped 0.2 percent to 9,440.99.


(2017-01-05)
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