I. Yesterday’s News
1. As Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump pushed their closing arguments ahead of next week's U.S. presidential election, financial markets were rattled on Wednesday by opinion polls showing a tightening White House race. While most national polls still favor Clinton to win, she has lost the comfortable lead she held late last month and investors are starting to factor in the possibility that the New York businessman might pull off a victory on Nov. 8. World stocks, the dollar and oil fell on Wednesday, while safe-haven assets such as gold and the Swiss franc rose as investors showed nerves over the tightening race.
2. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday in its last policy decision before the U.S. election, but signaled it could hike in December. The U.S. central bank said the economy had gained steam and job gains remained solid. Policymakers also expressed more optimism that inflation was moving toward their 2 percent target. That suggests the bar is low for a rate increase at the Fed's final policy meeting of the year in mid-December, which has largely been factored in by financial markets. U.S. stocks extended earlier losses and Treasury yields fell after the release of the Fed statement. The U.S. dollar briefly pared losses before falling further against a basket of currencies.
3. U.S. crude oil stockpiles posted the largest weekly build since the U.S. Energy Department started keeping records, bolstered by a decline in refining runs. Inventories in gasoline and distilled oil reduced. Crude inventories rose 14.42 million to 482.58 million barrels in the week to Oct. 28, the EIA said, compared with expectations for an increase of 1.013 million barrels. Oil tumbled 3 percent on Wednesday.
4. U.S. private employers added 147,000 jobs in October, below economists' expectations, a report by a payrolls processor showed on Wednesday. Private payroll gains in the month earlier were revised up to 202,000 from an originally reported 154,000 increase.
5. Euro zone manufacturing activity accelerated at its fastest rate in nearly three years last month, while inflationary pressures showed further signs of recovery, a survey found on Wednesday. The findings will make welcome reading for policymakers at the European Central Bank, who have struggled to get growth and inflation up despite years of ultra-loose monetary policy. Markit's final Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) jumped to a 33-month high of 53.5 from September's 52.6, ahead of the preliminary flash reading of 53.3 and above the 50-mark that separates growth from contraction. A sub-index measuring output climbed to 54.6 from 53.8, its highest level since April 2014.
6.Growth in Britain's construction industry hit a seven-month high in October as housebuilding rose, but slowing order books and soaring prices for building materials darkened the outlook, a survey showed on Wednesday. The Markit/CIPS UK Construction Purchasing Managers' Index(PMI) rose unexpectedly to 52.6 from 52.3, confounding a Reuters poll forecast for a drop to 51.8. While the survey chimed with signs the economy has maintained momentum since June's Brexit vote, weakening growth in new orders and rocketing costs suggested next year will prove more difficult.
II. Market Overview FX
The U.S. dollar hit its lowest level in more than three weeks against the euro, yen, Swiss franc and sterling on Wednesday on nervousness about a potential victory for U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump next week. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was last down 0.3 percent at 97.403. The Mexican peso tumbled to a more than one-month low against the greenback, at 19.4667 pesos per dollar, on fears of how a Trump victory could hurt the Mexican economy. The euro was last up 0.3 percent at $1.1088. Against the yen the dollar was down 0.7 percent, at 103.40 yen. The dollar was last down 0.2 percent against the Swiss franc , at 0.9733 franc.
Precious Metals
Gold rallied to a one-month high on Wednesday, as uncertainty over the outcome of the U.S. election knocked stocks and the dollar lower, but bullion pared gains slightly after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady as expected. Spot gold rose to $1,296.89 an ounce. U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled up 1.6 percent at $1,308.20 per ounce. Among other precious metals, silver was up at $18.44 an ounce. Platinum was up at $987. Palladium was last at $628.50.
Commodities 1.Crude Oil
Oil prices tumbled 3 percent on Wednesday after a record weekly build in U.S. crude inventories stoked investor worries about a global supply glut, days after analysts estimated higher monthly OPEC crude output. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled down by $1.33, or 2.9 percent, at $45.34 a barrel. Brent fell $1.28, or 2.7 percent, to settle at $46.86.
2. Base Metals
Copper was steady on Wednesday, supported by Chinese economic data that pointed to robust demand for industrial metals, balancing pressure from speculators booking profits after a rally this week. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange closed barely changed, up $1 to $4,920 a tonne, rebounding from an intraday low of $4,866. On Tuesday. Zinc finished 1.6 percent weaker at $2,426 a tonne, having galloped to a half-decade high on profit-taking. Tin ended down 0.4 percent at $20,775, retreating from an intraday peak of $20,895 a tonne, its highest level since September 2014. Aluminium dipped 0.5 percent to close at $1,726.50, lead shed 0.8 percent to $2,054, while nickel slipped 0.9 percent to end at $10,320.
U.S. Treasuries
U.S. Treasury yields fell to their lowest in a week on Wednesday as uncertainty ahead of next week's U.S. presidential election enhanced the appeal of safe-haven bonds, and the Federal Reserve did not commit to an imminent interest rate hike. Benchmark 10-year notes ended up 7/32 in price to yield 1.80 percent.
Stock Market 1. U.S. Equities
The S&P 500 ended lower on Wednesday for a seventh straight session, its longest such streak in five years, as the Federal Reserve signaled it could hike interest rates in December and the uncertain U.S. election continued to cloud the market's outlook. The S&P 500 closed below 2,100 for the first time since July 7. In another negative technical sign for the market, the combined number of 52-week lows on the NYSE and Nasdaq jumped to the most since June and significantly outpaced the number of new highs. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 77.46 points, or 0.43 percent, to 17,959.64, the S&P 500 lost 13.78 points, or 0.65 percent, to 2,097.94 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 48.01 points, or 0.93 percent, to 5,105.57.
2. Hong Kong Equities
Hong Kong shares ended at their lowest in more than two months on Wednesday, joining a global sell-off in risk assets amid uncertainty over the U.S. presidential election next week. The benchmark Hang Seng index fell 1.5 percent, to 22,810.50, while the China Enterprises Index lost 1.9 percent, to 9,519.87 points.
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