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ICBC Global Financial Market Daily Review--February 10, 2017
 

I. Yesterday's News
1. U.S. President Donald Trump plans to announce the most ambitious tax reform plan since the Reagan era in the next few weeks, the White House said on Thursday, sending stock prices and the dollar higher on hopes for a cut in corporate tax rates. In a White House meeting with airline executives, Trump promised a "phenomenal" tax plan, but offered no specifics other than citing the need to a lower tax burden on businesses. White House spokesman Sean Spicer later told reporters that Trump would unveil a comprehensive tax plan including tax cuts for individuals as well as businesses.

2. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week to near a 43-year low, amid a further tightening of the labor market that could eventually spur faster wage growth. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped by 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 234,000 for the week ended Feb. 4, the Labor Department said. That left claims just shy of the 43-year low of 233,000 touched in early November. Claims have now remained below 300,000, a threshold associated with a strong labor market, for 101 straight weeks. That is the longest stretch since 1970, when the labor market was much smaller. Other data on Thursday showed inventories at wholesalers surged in December for a second straight month and sales recorded their biggest increase since 2011, signs of confidence in the economy as domestic demand strengthens.

3. U.S. interest rates can likely remain low through at least 2017, with no clear sense yet of whether the Trump administration's policies will spark higher inflation or growth, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said on Thursday. Bullard said he feels that the Fed will only need to raise interest rates once this year, and indicated a move probably will not happen when the central banks meets in March. But Chicago Fed President Evans said it is reasonable to expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates three times this year in part because the early direction of U.S. fiscal policies appear to be positive for the economy.

4. A U.S. federal appeals court on Thursday unanimously upheld a suspension of President Donald Trump's order that restricted travel from seven Muslim-majority countries. The 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruling came in a challenge to Trump's order filed by the states of Washington and Minnesota. The U.S. Supreme Court will likely determine the case's final outcome.

5. Private equity firm Blackstone Group LP has agreed to acquire insurance broker Aon Plc's employee benefits outsourcing business for around $4.8 billion. The deal gives Blackstone ownership of a business that processes work benefits for 15 percent of the U.S. Population. The deal will be announced by Friday, the people added. The sources asked not to be identified because the negotiations are confidential. Aon and CD&R declined to comment, while Blackstone could not immediately be reached for comment.

6. Chinese exporters have suffered a total of 20 trade remedy probes initiated by the United States in 2016, an 81.1 percent increase year on year, the Ministry of Commerce (MOC) said Thursday. The 11 anti-dumping and nine anti-subsidy investigations involved 3.7 billion U.S. dollars, up 131 percent from 2015, the MOC said. "Given that the trade scale between China and the U.S. is huge, it is normal that trade frictions will occur," said Wang Hejun, head of the MOC's trade remedy and investigation bureau. "However, it is noticeable that the U.S. is imposing high taxes on Chinese imports and many of its measures are against WTO rules." Wang said that China was against this move and hoped to work with the United States to solve trade friction.

7. Germany will press the Group of 20 to reaffirm its commitment to promoting free trade, resisting currency wars and fighting climate change when finance ministers meet next month for the first time since the election of Donald Trump, G20 sources said. But the sources said there was far more uncertainty than usual surrounding the drafting of the G20 communique because of the Trump administration's confrontational rhetoric on trade and currencies, and its scepticism about whether humans are contributing to global warming.

8. Coca-Cola Co reported a 6 percent drop in quarterly revenue, the seventh straight drop, hurt by high levels of inflation in certain Latin American countries and as a strong dollar reduced the value of sales outside the United States. Net income attributable to the company's shareholders fell to $550 million, or 13 cents per share, in the fourth quarter ended Dec. 31, from $1.24 billion, or 28 cents per share, a year earlier. Net operating revenue fell to $9.41 billion from $10 billion. Twitter Inc posted the slowest revenue growth since it went public on fears that rivals Snapchat and Facebook Inc were winning the war for advertising. Twitter's net loss widened to $167.1 million, or 23 cents per share, in the fourth quarter ended Dec. 31, from $90.24 million, or 13 cents per share, a year earlier.

II. Market Overview
FX
The dollar rose across the board on Thursday, posting its best one-day gain against the yen in three weeks, after comments from U.S. President Donald Trump that he would make a major announcement on a "phenomenal" tax plan in the next few weeks. The greenback advanced against the euro in three of the four last sessions, as well as climbing to more than one-week highs versus the Swiss franc. Gains were boosted by Thursday's upbeat U.S. economic data. In afternoon trading, the dollar rose 1.2 percent against the yen to 113.27, after hitting a high of 113.29, its strongest level since Feb. 3. The dollar index gained 0.4 percent to 100.64, with the greenback rising 0.6 percent to 1.0012 Swiss francs. The euro also dipped against the dollar, down 0.4 percent at $1.0656 with political risks.

Precious Metals
Gold slipped on Thursday from a three-month high in the previous session after robust U.S. economic data pointed to a stronger economy, increasing the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will raise U.S. interest rates. Spot gold closed at $1,228.37 an ounce, while U.S. gold futures settled down 0.2 percent at $1,236.80. Adding support to prices, SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, increased its bullion holdings for a sixth day on Wednesday. In other precious metals, platinum was down 0.2 percent at $1,012.99 an ounce. The metal touched $1,028.50, its highest since Oct. 3, earlier in the session.

Commodities
1.Crude Oil
Oil prices held onto gains on Thursday with U.S. prices rising on evidence that gasoline demand could strengthen in the world's biggest oil market, although bloated crude supplies meant that fuel markets remain under pressure. Benchmark Brent crude settled up 51 cents at $55.63 per barrel. U.S. light crude settled 66 cents higher at $53 a barrel.

2.Base Metals
Copper fell on Thursday as a bounce in the dollar and concerns over whether the supply and demand backdrop justified its recent rally sparked profit-taking, but prices remained underpinned by the threat of supply disruptions. Workers at the world's largest mine in Chile went on strike from 1100 GMT on Thursday. In Indonesia, Freeport-McMoRan Inc's Grasberg mine has yet to be granted a new export permit. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange closed down 1.2 percent at $5,822 a tonne, having climbed by 1.7 percent the previous day.

U.S. Treasuries
U.S. Treasury yields rose on Thursday as optimism wrapped markets following comments from President Donald Trump that he would reveal plans for U.S. tax reform in the coming weeks. Longer-dated yields, which are more sensitive to inflation expectations, led the selloff on Thursday as investors expect fiscal stimulus measures like tax cuts to drive inflation higher. Benchmark 10-year notes fell 16/32 in price to yield 2.393 percent, more than 5 basis points higher than their late Wednesday levels. The 30-year bonds dropped 1-2/32 in price to yield 3.017 percent, also up more than 5 basis points from their levels on Wednesday.

Stock Market
1. U.S. Equities
Wall Street's three main indexes surged to fresh record highs on Thursday after President Donald Trump said he would make a major tax announcement in a few weeks. "Lowering the overall tax burden on American business is big league," Trump said during a White House meeting with airline industry executives. He gave no indication of what the announcement might entail. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 118.06 points, or 0.59 percent, to 20,172.4, the S&P 500 gained 13.2 points, or 0.58 percent, to 2,307.87 and the Nasdaq Composite added 32.73 points, or 0.58 percent, to 5,715.18. All three indexes closed at all-time highs.

2. Hong Kong Equities
Hong Kong stocks hit a four-month high on Thursday with mainland companies outperforming, as expectations of further yuan depreciation continued to nudge Chinese investors into the city's stocks. The benchmark Hang Seng index reached an intraday high of 23,644.63 points, the highest since Oct. 11, 2016. The index closed up 0.2 percent to 23,525.14, while the Hong Kong China Enterprises Index settled at its highest level since November 2015, rising 1.2 percent, at 10,075.17 points. Nearly all sectors gained ground at the close, with industrial stocks among the best performers.


(2017-02-10)
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