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ICBC Global Financial Market Daily Review--February 14, 2017
 

I. Yesterday's News
1. President Donald Trump said on Monday the United States would be "tweaking" its trade relationship with Canada, stopping short of calling for a major realignment in a development likely to please visiting Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Trump has pledged to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement(NAFTA) linking the economies of the United States, Mexico and Canada to make the terms more favourable to Americans. Trump said his biggest concern with NAFTA was the U.S. trade relationship with Mexico, which he has frequently accused of stealing American jobs.

2. Germany on Monday voiced support for Greece to stay in the euro zone and the European Commission dispatched a senior official to Athens to persuade it to take on further reforms to salvage its bailout accord. International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde, meanwhile, remained firm that as a lender the IMF could not cut any special deals for the crisis-hit country.

3. Data on Monday showed Japan's economy grew an annualised 1.0 percent in October-December, roughly in line with the 1.1 percent increase markets had expected. Japan's economy grew for a fourth straight quarter in the final three months of last year supported by strong exports, but tepid private consumption and the risks of rising U.S. protectionism cast doubts over a sustainable recovery. External demand contributed 0.2 percentage point to GDP, boosted by shipments of cars to China and the United States, and those of electronics parts to Asia. Private consumption, which accounts for roughly 60 percent of GDP, showed no growth, largely in line with a flat reading forecast by economists.

4. Supply from the 11 OPEC members with production targets under the deal fell to 29.888 million bpd last month, according to figures from secondary sources that OPEC uses to monitor its output. Cutbacks by the 11 OPEC members amounted to 93 percent compliance, according to a Reuters calculation based on OPEC's figures. Saudi Arabia told OPEC that it made an even bigger cut than estimated, suggesting supply glut can be eliminated in 2017. Oil prices pared an earlier decline after the release of the report, trading above $56 a barrel.

5. Apple's stock climbed 0.9 percent to end at $133.29, above its record high close of $133.00 hit on Feb. 23, 2015 and giving it a market value of about $699 billion. Its increase helped balloon the S&P 500's market capitalization on Monday beyond $20 trillion for the first time in what amounts to a victory for plain-vanilla mutual funds over a bevy of hedge fund managers who recently backed away from the iPhone maker.

II. Market Overview
FX
The dollar rose to a near three-week high against a basket of currencies on Monday, lifted by hopes of U.S. tax cuts to stoke corporate profits and investments, as well as bets on whether the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates more quickly. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six other currencies, reached 101.11, its strongest level since Jan. 20. It was last up 0.15 percent at 100.95. The dollar advanced to a two-week peak against the yen. The dollar was last up 0.4 percent at 113.60 yen. The euro slipped to its lowest level against the dollar since Jan. 19, Reuters data showed. The single currency was last down 0.4 percent at $1.0600.

Precious Metals
Gold prices slipped on Monday as the dollar rose and equities climbed, but political and economic uncertainties in the United States and Europe are expected to provide support for now. The spot price was down at $1,225.06 an ounce. U.S. gold futures settled down 0.8 percent at $1,225.80.

Commodities
1.Crude Oil
Oil prices declined on Monday by about 2 percent, the most since mid-January, pressured by a stronger dollar and signs of rising U.S. crude output. Investors were meanwhile underwhelmed by an OPEC report showing high compliance with last year's production-cut deal. Brent futures lost $1.11, or 2 percent, at $55.59 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 93 cents, or 1.7 percent, to $52.93 per barrel.

2.Base Metals
The price of copper on Monday hit its highest level since May 2015, extending the previous session's near 5 percent surge after shipments from the world's two biggest copper mines were disrupted. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange closed up 0.3 percent at $6,106 a tonne.

U.S. Treasuries
U.S. Treasury yields rose on Monday as investors looked ahead to testimony by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on Tuesday and Wednesday and as record high stock markets reduced demand for bonds.

Stock Market
1. U.S. Equities
U.S. equity indexes hit record highs on Monday, with the benchmark S&P 500's market value topping $20 trillion as investors bet tax cuts promised by President Donald Trump would boost the economy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 142,79 points or 0.7 percent to end at 20,412.16 points, while the S&P 500 gained 12.15 points or 0.52 percent to 2,328.25 points. The Nasdaq Composite added 29.83 points or 0.52 percent to end at 5,763.956.

2. Hong Kong Equities
Hong Kong shares closed at a four-month high on Monday, underpinned by the materials sector following a rally in commodities prices and thanks to capital flows from the mainland. The Hang Seng index rose 0.6 percent to 23,710.98 points, its highest close since Oct. 11. Meanwhile, the China Enterprises Index gained 1.3 percent, to 10,257.84 points, its highest since end-November 2015.


(2017-02-14)
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