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ICBC Global Financial Market Daily Review--February 4, 2017
 

I. Yesterday's News
1. U.S. job growth surged more than expected in January as construction firms and retailers ramped up hiring, handing the Trump administration a head start as it seeks to boost the economy. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 227,000 jobs, the largest gain in four months, the Labor Department said on Friday. The unemployment rate, however, rose one-tenth of a percentage point to 4.8 percent and wages increased by only three cents, suggesting that there was still some slack in the labor market. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls rising 175,000 last month and the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.7 percent. Factory goods orders increased 1.3 percent, and total shipments of manufactured goods increased 2.2 percent, the largest increase in six years, showed by another Commerce Department report. Wall Street's top banks expect no rate hike from the Federal Reserve before the second quarter and just two this year in a poll of dealers taken after Friday's jobs report. In the poll, 12 of the 14 respondents forecast policy makers would lift the range by 0.25 percentage point to between 0.75 percent and 1.00 percent by the end of the second quarter. Furthermore, 10 respondents predict an end-of-year range of 1.00 percent to 1.25 percent. The median view of 12 primary dealers pegs the fed funds rate range rising to 1.75 percent to 2.00 percent by the end of 2018.

2. U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order to scale back regulations in the industry that were implemented in the wake of the financial crisis, including the Dodd-Frank law. The financial sector jumped despite of lack of detail.

3. The institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing index hit 56.5 in January, following 56.6 in the previous month. Economist expected the institute's non-manufacturing index hit 57. Markit's final services purchasing managers' index rose to 55.6, the highest since November 2015, from December's 53.9. This was comfortably above the flash estimate of 55.1.

4. Euro zone businesses started 2017 by increasing activity at the same multi-year record pace they set in December and faster growth in demand suggested the good times will continue. IHS Markit's final composite Purchasing Managers' Index held at December's 54.4. It has not been higher since May 2011 and beat a 54.3 flash estimate. Euro zone December retail sales fell 0.3 percent from November, but rose 1.1 percent compared with the same period last year. Markit's flash composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) edged down to 54.8 in the first month of 2017 from 55.2 in December. The reading, a four-month low, was comfortably above the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction and better than figure last week. Markit data showed that after seasonal adjustment, France's services PMI (final) was revised up by continuing higher to 54.1 in January 2017 from 52.9 in December 2016, hitting 5-1/2-year high, compared to market estimates of keeping the initial of 53.9. Growth in Britain's services sector slowed for the first time in four months in January. The Markit/CIPS services purchasing managers' index (PMI) dropped to 54.5 from December's 15-month high of 56.2, worse than 55.8 in a Reuters poll.

5. The United States on Friday sanctioned 13 individuals and 12 entities under its Iran sanctions authority, some of which are based in the United Arab Emirates, Lebanon and China.

6.Guo Song, an official with the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) said China was closely watching some irrational outbound investment in real estate, hotel, film-making, entertainment, sports club, and other sectors. Guo pointed out potential risks in large investment in non-leading industry, outbound investment by limited partnership enterprises, “small parent company with large subsidiaries”, “quick set-up and exit”, prompting related firms for cautious decision-making.

II. Market Overview
FX
The dollar fell on Friday in choppy trading after the U.S. employment report showed a smaller-than-expected rise in wages last month despite strong jobs gains, likely prompting the Federal Reserve to be less aggressive in raising interest rates this year. In late trading, the dollar index, which tracks the greenback versus six top currencies, was flat to slightly lower at 99.776. Against the yen, the dollar was down 0.1 percent at 112.70 yen. The euro, meanwhile, was up 0.2 percent against the dollar at $1.0775.

Precious Metals
Gold was little changed on Friday, erasing earlier losses as the dollar came under pressure from a U.S. payrolls report that flagged up weak wage growth last month, weakening the case for near-term interest rate hikes. Spot gold was unchanged at $1,215.75 an ounce by 1925 GMT, off an earlier low of $1,207.10. U.S. gold futures for April delivery settled up 0.1 percent at $1,220.80 per ounce.

Commodities
1.Crude Oil
Oil prices rose on Friday after the United States imposed sanctions on some Iranian individuals and entities, days after the White House rebuked Tehran for a ballistic missile test. Front-month U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled up 29 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $53.83. The contract gained more than 1 percent for the week. Brent crude futures settled 25 cents higher at $56.81 a barrel, giving it a 2 percent gain on the week.

2.Base Metals
Copper prices slid to their lowest in nearly two weeks on Friday after workers restarted wage talks at the biggest copper mine and China increased its interest rates, sparking concern about a clampdown on speculators. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange closed down 1.9 percent at $5,772 a tonne, the weakest since Jan. 23 and the third straight loss.

U.S. Treasuries
The U.S. Treasury yield curve was the steepest in one-and-a-half months on Friday after the jobs report for January showed disappointing wage growth, indicating inflation is not rising at a pace that would lead the Federal Reserve to raise rates in the near-term. The yield curve between 5-year notes and 30-year bonds steepened to 120 basis points, the widest since Dec. 14.

Stock Market
1. U.S. Equities
U.S. stocks climbed on Friday, with the S&P 500 closing just short of a record high, boosted by gains in financial shares as President Donald Trump moved ahead with deregulation action and by a strong payrolls report. The S&P financial sector jumped 2 percent to score its best day since mid-November after Trump signed an executive order to scale back regulations in the industry that were implemented in the wake of the financial crisis, including the Dodd-Frank law. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 186.55 points, or 0.94 percent, to close at 20,071.46, the S&P 500 gained 16.57 points, or 0.73 percent, to 2,297.42 and the Nasdaq Composite added 30.57 points, or 0.54 percent, to 5,666.77. For the week, the S&P and Nasdaq each gained 0.1 percent while the Dow shed 0.1 percent.

2. Hong Kong Equities
Hong Kong stocks suffered their fourth consecutive session of declines on Friday, as a robust post-Christmas rebound appears to be losing steam amid uncertainty over global growth and fresh signs of policy tightening in China. The benchmark Hang Seng index fell 0.2 percent, to 23,129.21, while the China Enterprises Index lost 0.1 percent, to 9,683.23 points. For the week, Hang Seng dropped 1 percent, while HSCE lost 0.7 percent.


(2017-02-04)
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