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ICBC Global Financial Market Daily Review--February 9, 2017
 

I. Yesterday's News
1. New Zealand's central bank signaled no further interest rate cut on Thursday, but would tighten policy for two or more years. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held its benchmark interest rates at a record low of 1.75 percent on Thursday and said monetary policy will remain accommodative "for a considerable period". The statement  was taken as a moderate tone, sending the NZ dollar $0.005 lower to $0.7256. "Numerous uncertainties remain, particularly in respect of the international outlook, and policy may need to adjust accordingly," RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler after the first policy meeting this year.

2. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe heads to Washington on Thursday hoping promises to help create U.S. jobs and bolster Japan's military will persuade U.S. President Donald Trump to turn down the heat on trade and currency and stand by the decades-old alliance. Japanese officials have been soothed by security assurances from Defense Secretary and others. But they worry Trump may go off script when the two leaders meet, first for a summit in Washington on Friday and then for a round of golf near the "Winter White House" in Florida. Some in Tokyo even worry that Trump might eventually make some sort of pact with rival China that leaves Japan out in the cold.

3. Prime Minister Theresa May won approval from parliament's lower chamber on Wednesday to trigger Britain's exit from the European Union, defeating attempts by pro-EU lawmakers to attach extra conditions to her plan to start divorce talks by March 31. Lawmakers voted 494 to 122 in favour of legislation giving May the right to trigger Brexit, ending days of intense debate. The bill now needs the approval of the upper chamber, in which May does not have a majority, before it becomes law. The victory marks a significant step towards starting what is expected to be a complex and difficult two-year negotiation with the EU.

4. China maintained a current account surplus, and capital and financial account deficit in 2016, and is expected to sustain the situation in 2017, but China's capital and financial account deficit will narrow. "International payments will remain basically balanced, and risks from cross-border capital flows are generally controllable," the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) said in a statement. The regulator also said that somewhat this year, while it will maintain a current account surplus. On the one hand, global economic growth will boost China's export. On the other hand, deficit growth in service trade will slow down due to growth in the tourism area.

5. British employers plan to offer the least generous pay deals since 2012 this year, the Bank of England said on Wednesday, underscoring its view that the economy is set to suffer from the effects of the Brexit vote. Firms contacted by the BoE expected to offer pay settlements of 2.2 percent on average, down from 2.7 percent in 2016. But the pound's fall of more than 15 percent against the dollar since June's referendum is pushing up inflation and is likely eat into the spending power of many households, the BoE says. In a regular survey of 700 businesses across Britain, the BoE said price pressures were building across supply chains, and firms expected inflation to spread beyond food and fuel prices to a wider range of goods and services this year.

6. Time Warner Inc , which is in the process of being bought by AT&T Inc , reported an 11.47 rise in quarterly revenue, helped by the success of the "Harry Potter" spinoff "Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them." The company's net income from continuing operations fell to $317 million, or $40 per share, in the fourth quarter ended Dec. 31 from $857 million, or $1.06 per share, a year earlier. Excluding some items, the company earned $1.25 per share. Revenue rose to $7.89 billion from $7.08 billion. Volvo Car Group reported a jump in 2016 earnings and revenue on Wednesday and forecast higher sales this year helped by new models. Operating earnings rose to 11.0 billion Swedish crowns ($1.24 billion) from 6.6 billion a year earlier. Gothenburg-based Volvo reported record high sales of 534,332 cars in 2016.

II. Market Overview
FX
The dollar fell on Wednesday after two days of gains, pressured by the decline in U.S. Treasury yields as investors have priced out a March rate hike by the Federal Reserve amid uncertainty about President Donald Trump's economic policies. In late trading, the dollar index fell 0.2 percent to 100.27 , as the greenback slid 0.3 percent to 112.05 yen. The euro was down 0.3 percent against the yen at 119.76 yen , and was up 0.1 percent versus the dollar at $1.0687 .

Precious Metals
Gold rose to a three-month peak on Wednesday, as political risks posed by elections in Europe and worries over U.S. President Donald Trump's policies stoked safe haven demand. Spot gold rose to $1,241.61 an ounce, after rising to its highest since Nov.11 at $1,244.67. U.S. gold futures settled up 0.3 percent at $1,239.50. Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust , the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose for a fifth straight session on Tuesday.

Commodities
1.Crude Oil
Oil prices rose slightly on Wednesday as investors covered short positions after a rise in U.S. crude inventories was not as massive as many had feared, while gasoline futures jumped 4 percent after a surprise decline in inventories of the fuel. Gasoline futures settled 4.4 percent higher at $1.5527 a gallon. Brent crude futures settled at $55.12 per barrel, up 7 cents or 0.13 percent. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 17 cents, or 0.33 percent, to settle at $52.34 a barrel.

2.Base Metals
Copper prices rose on Wednesday after the world's top two mines said strikes and permit delays would force them to cut output, squeezing global supply. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange closed up 1.7 percent at $5,895 a tonne, erasing a decline of 0.9 percent in the previous session. In other metals, nickel finished up 1.5 percent at $10,500 a tonne. Tin closed up 0.5 percent at $19,025 a tonne, halting four days of falls.

U.S. Treasuries
U.S. Treasury yields fell to their lowest levels in multiple weeks on Wednesday with 5-year note yields hitting their lowest since Dec. 8 as a flight to safety and technical positioning encouraged investors to buy U.S. government debt. Yields on 7-, 10- and 30-year Treasuries fell to their lowest levels since mid-January.
The 10-year note was last up 9/32 in price to yield 2.358 percent.

Stock Market
1. U.S. Equities
Wall Street diverged on Wednesday. The S&P 500 ended slightly higher as investors digested mixed earnings reports, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped as bank stocks weighed. The Nasdaq gained moderately to close at a record high for a second straight day, lifted by big tech names such as Facebook and Apple. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 35.95 points, or 0.18 percent, to 20,054.34, the S&P 500 gained 1.59 points, or 0.07 percent, to 2,294.67 and the Nasdaq Composite added 8.24 points, or 0.15 percent, to 5,682.45.

2. Hong Kong Equities
Hong Kong stocks erased early losses and closed at 3-1/2-month highs on Wednesday, boosted by shares of China property developers and brokers. The benchmark Hang Seng index ended up 0.7 percent at 23,485.13 points, while the Hong Kong China Enterprises Index gained 1.1 percent to 9,955.34.


(2017-02-09)
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