Home > News Updates > Financial News > ICBC Daily Comment
ICBC Global Financial Market Daily Review--November 21, 2016
 

I. Yesterday's News
1. The post-U.S. election market reaction is not concerning in terms of planned interest rate rises, an influential Federal Reserve official said on Friday, because the bond selloff and dollar rise appears motivated by expectations of new policies out of Washington. "The movement in markets seems consistent with the change in expectations of how economic policy might evolve," New York Fed President William Dudley said at a press conference. "So I don't think that what we're seeing in financial markets is, to me, concerning in terms of monetary policy." Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Esther George said on Friday that while she supports raising interest rates, the U.S. central bank must do so only gradually. Federal Reserve policymaker James Bullard is leaning towards supporting an interest rate increase in December, he said on Friday, adding that the debate is now shifting toward the Fed's rate path in 2017. The U.S. election has not changed the Federal Reserve's outlook for next year as the actual impact of any policy changes would take effect from 2018 and 2019, Bullard said. Dallas Fed Bank President Robert Kaplan said in a television interview with Fox Business Network that he thinks it is nearly time for the U.S. central bank to raise interest rates.

2. Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said he's confident of building a relationship of trust.after meeting the U.S. president-elect Donald Trump on Thursday to get clarity on statements Trump had made while campaigning that had caused concern about the alliance. Abe described Trump as a "trustworthy leader" and the talks as "candid" and held in a "warm atmosphere". Abe said he had agreed to meet again with Trump "at a convenient time to cover a wider area in greater depth."

3.Saudi Arabian Energy Minister said the Doha meeting went well. OPEC member countries have proposed Iran cap its oil output at 3.92 million barrels per day (bpd), a source familiar with the proposal told Reuters. The source said Tehran had yet to respond to the proposal.

4. Countries that signed the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) free trade pact have said at the APEC summit in Lima they could focus on the China-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) if TPP does not move forward, United States Trade Representative Michael Froman said on Friday. Mexico's Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo said on Friday Mexico, Japan, Australia, Malaysia, New Zealand and Singapore aim to continue with the Trans-Pacific Partnership with or without the United States.

5.The Conference Board said Friday the Leading Economic Index for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in October to 124.5, in line with the expectations of economists. Statistics Canada said the consumer price index in October was up 0.2 percent from the previous month and 1.5 per cent compared with a year ago. The core CPI rose 0.2 percent and 1.7 percent on a month-on-month and year-on-year basis respectively.

II. Market Overview
FX
The dollar rose to its highest level since April 2003 against a basket of currencies on Friday, marking its biggest two-week increase since March 2015 as traders piled bets on a massive dose of fiscal stimulus under a Trump U.S. Presidency. Also stoking the dollar rally were growing expectations the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates next month. The greenback has climbed 7.3 percent against the yen in two weeks, its steepest such gain since January 1988 and its second-strongest performance in the era of floating exchange rates. The dollar index, hit 101.48, its highest since early April 2003 before paring gains to 101.25, up 0.4 percent on the day. The gauge of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies was on track for a 4.2 percent two-week gain, its biggest since March 2015. The greenback hit a 5-1/2 month high against the yen of 110.92 before retreating to 110.64 yen, up 0.6 percent from Thursday.

Precious Metals
Gold on Friday fell to its lowest level since late May as the dollar surged to its highest in more than 13-1/2 years on expectations for a U.S. rate hike next month and higher fiscal spending from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's incoming administration. Spot gold was down 0.6 percent at $1,208.71 by 2006 GMT. The 50-day moving average appeared on track to cross below the 200-day moving average above the market, potentially forming a "death cross," which technical traders often consider a bearish signal. U.S. gold futures for December delivery were settled down 0.7 percent at $1,208.70, after falling to $1,201.30, their weakest since mid-February. Spot prices have fallen more than 1 percent this week.

Commodities
1.Crude Oil
Oil prices settled higher on Friday, closing out a strong week that saw crude buoyed by growing expectations that OPEC will find a way to cap production at the end of the month. For the week, Brent and U.S. crude both rose roughly 5 percent, their first weekly gains in about a month. Brent notched a daily rise of 37 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $46.86 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 27 cents, or 0.6 percent, for the day, at $45.69 a barrel.

2. Base Metals
Copper clocked its biggest weekly fall in a month on Friday as the dollar soared to a 14-year high and traders decided a rally driven by U.S. president-elect Donald Trump's economic policies was overdone, for now. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange ended down 1.3 percent at $5,423 a tonne, marking a weekly fall of 2 percent.

U.S. Treasuries
U.S. Treasury yields rose to their highest levels of the year on Friday, spurred by technical positioning and expectations of higher inflation and interest rates after the election of Republican Donald Trump as U.S. President. The yield on U.S. benchmark 10-year Treasury notes rose to 2.355 percent, which was the highest since Dec. 4, 2015. Yields on the 10-year note looked set to post their largest two-week rise since November 2001. Yields on Treasuries of all maturities have registered the largest two-week gains in more than five years. Yields on the 2-year Treasury note rose to 1.071 percent, the highest since Jan. 4. Yields on the 30-year bond rose to 3.051 percent, near their 2016 high and on pace to close above 3 percent for the first time since Jan. 5.

Stock Market
1. U.S. Equities
U.S. stocks ended lower on Friday, with healthcare stocks leading the declines, as investors cashed in on a post-election rally and waited for clarity on the next administration's policies. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 35.89 points, or 0.19 percent, to 18,867.93 while the S&P 500 dropped 5.22 points, or 0.24 percent, to 2,181.9. The Nasdaq Composite slipped 12.46 points, or 0.23 percent, to 5,321.51.

2. Hong Kong Equities
Hong Kong stocks rose on Friday, but posted a fourth consecutive weekly loss amid worries the United States will raise interest rates next month and a strong dollar could keep drawing money there from emerging markets. The benchmark Hang Seng index rose 0.4 percent, to 22,344.21, and lost 0.8 percent for the week. The Hong Kong China Enterprises Index gained 0.2 percent on Friday, and for the week was down 0.9 percent.


(2016-11-21)
Close