I. Yesterday's News 1. Republican Donald Trump put aside the celebrations and focused on Wednesday on his 73-day transition to the White House as rival Hillary Clinton promised to bury the bitterness of their long presidential race and work to unify a divided country. Trump will enjoy Republican majorities in both chambers of the U.S. Congress that could help him implement his legislative agenda. Worried that a Trump victory could cause economic and global uncertainty, investors initially fled stocks worldwide, but Wall Street made a dramatic turnaround and the U.S. dollar hit its highest level against the Japanese yen in nearly four months. The Mexican peso recouped some losses after falling to a record low. The currency has been vulnerable to Trump's threats to rip up a free trade agreement with Mexico and to tax money sent home by migrants to pay to build a border wall.
2. New Zealand's central bank cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low of 1.75 percent on Thursday, the third easing this year, but said this latest move was likely enough to get inflation back into its target range. The bank projected rates at 1.7 percent next year, suggesting only a 20 percent chance of a further cut. The RBNZ repeated that the exchange rate was higher than was sustainable and needed to fall.
3. Britain's trade deficit with the rest of the world narrowed in the three months to September, offering a boost to third-quarter growth, after a hefty fall in sterling following Britain's vote to leave the European Union. However, the trade deficit in goods heavily overshot economists' expectations in September alone, driven in part by a record deficit with the EU.
4. Euro zone and Britain's growth will slow next year, the European Commission said on Wednesday, cutting its economic forecasts for 2017 because of increased political uncertainty, including Britain's Brexit vote, and weakening global trade. The EU executive estimated that growth in the 19 countries sharing the euro would slow to 1.7 percent this year from 2.0 percent in 2015 and decelerate further to 1.5 percent in 2017 before picking up again to 1.7 percent in 2018. Britain's GDP will pick up this year increasing by 1.9%, but growth will nearly halve next year to 1.0%, much lower than the 1.9% forecast in May.
5. U.S. crude stocks rose last week as refineries hiked output, while gasoline stocks decreased and distillate inventories fell, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Crude inventories rose by 2.432 million barrels to 485.01 million barrels in the week to Nov. 4, compared with analysts' expectations for an increase of 1.3 million barrels.
II. Market Overview FX The dollar rose across the board and hit its highest in nearly four months against the Japanese yen on Wednesday, as U.S. Treasury debt yields touched multimonth highs following Republican candidate Donald Trump's victory in the presidential election. The dollar reversed earlier selling against the safe-haven yen to touch a high of 105.87 yen, its highest since July 27. It had fallen as much as 4 percent in overnight trading as Trump moved closer to securing the election win over heavily favored rival Hillary Clinton.
Precious Metals The price of gold swung sharply on Wednesday, after a conciliatory victory speech from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump also helped the dollar rebound. Gold had surged by nearly 5 percent to a six-week high of $1,337.40 an ounce as it emerged that the Republican nominee had triumphed over Democrat Hillary Clinton in the presidential election. But gold's price later fell below $1,280 an ounce as the dollar turned higher, U.S. stocks rose sharply and U.S. Treasury debt yields touched multi-month highs. Spot gold closed up at $1,277.80 an ounce. U.S. December gold futures settled down 0.1 percent at $1,273.50, with volume surging above 785,000 contracts, the highest for the most-active contract on records going back to 1980. Spot silver was last at $18.47 an ounce, having risen to its highest since Oct. 3 at $18.996 an ounce. Platinum and palladium were last at $998.70 and $677.60 respectively, off five-week highs for both markets.
Commodities 1.Crude Oil Oil prices edged higher on Wednesday as stocks and the dollar bounced back from a huge early slide following Donald Trump's surprise victory in the U.S. presidential election. Crude oil prices tumbled as much as 4.0 percent to near $43 a barrel, a near two-month low, late Tuesday night as it became clear U.S. voters picked Trump as their next president. Brent futures rose 32 cents, or 0.7 percent, to settle at $46.36 a barrel, while U.S. crude gained 29 cents, or 0.6 percent, to settle at $45.27 per barrel.
2. Base Metals Copper surged to a 15-month high on Wednesday and pulled other metals up too on technical buying and as investors speculated that a Donald Trump presidency could herald a significant fiscal stimulus and boost demand for metals. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange rose as much as 3.5 percent to its highest since July 22, 2015 at $5,443 a tonne. It closed 3.4 percent higher at $5,411 in official rings, its biggest daily increase since March. LME aluminium closed up 1.3 percent at $1,753.
U.S. Treasuries U.S. 30-year Treasury bond yields on Wednesday posted their sharpest rise in more than five years, bolstered by expectations U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will enforce protectionist trade policies and increase fiscal spending that will boost inflation. U.S. 30-year bond yields rose to 10-month highs, gaining nearly 25 basis points. That was the largest daily jump since August 2011. Benchmark U.S. 10-year bond yields also advanced, climbing to their highest level since January as they rose 21 basis points, the biggest increase in more than three years. A poorly received U.S. 10-year note auction also added to the pressure on bond prices. The high yield for the 10-year note came in at a higher-than-expected rate after the bid deadline.
Stock Market 1. U.S. Equities U.S. stocks rose sharply on Wednesday in a dramatic turnaround from deep overnight losses as Wall Street embraced the upset presidential election victory of Republican Donald Trump. The Dow Jones industrial average jumped 256.95 points or 1.4 percent to end at 18,589.69, just 0.25 percent below its all-time high set in August. The S&P 500 surged 23.70 points or 1.11 percent to 2,163.26 and the Nasdaq Composite added 57.58 points or 1.11 percent to end at 5,251.07.
2. Hong Kong Equities Hong Kong stocks touched a 3-month low on Wednesday, losing early gains to tumble over 2 percent as investors fled risky assets as Republican Donald Trump claimed a shock victory in the U.S. presidential election. The Hang Seng index fell 2.2 percent, to 22,415.19, while the Hong Kong China Enterprises Index lost 2.9 percent, to 9,378.66 points.
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