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ICBC Global Financial Market Daily Review--November 11, 2016
 

I. Yesterday's News
1. The Republican sweep of the White House and Congress could break the current gridlock over national policy in a potential boon to the U.S. economy, St. Louis Federal Reserve bank president James Bullard said on Thursday. Bullard said the potential positives from Tuesday's outcome, including the possibility of regulatory reform and a boost to growth through new infrastructure spending. Richmond Fed president Jeffrey Lacker said the case for a rate hike in December is strong. If the next Congress passes a stimulus program, the Federal Reserve should respond with more interest-rate hikes, he said.

2. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, underscoring the robustness of the labor market. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 11,000 to a seasonally adjusted 254,000 for the week ended Nov. 5, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast first-time applications for jobless benefits falling to 260,000 in the latest week. It was the 88th consecutive week that claims remained below 300,000, a threshold associated with a healthy labor market. U.S. stocks pared gains slightly following the data, while the dollar rose modestly against the euro.

3. The oil market risks running another surplus in 2017 without an output cut from OPEC, as producers around the globe ramp up supply and demand growth falters, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday. The Paris-based IEA kept its demand growth forecast for 2016 at 1.2 million bpd and expects consumption to increase at the same pace next year, having gradually slowed from a five-year peak of 1.8 million bpd in 2015. The group said it expects non-OPEC production to grow at a rate of 500,000 bpd next year, compared with a 900,000-bpd decline this year.

4. Japanese manufacturers' confidence rose for a third straight month to a 15-month high in November, while the mood in the service sector rebounded from a 3-1/2-year low in the prior month, a Reuters poll showed, in a sign of a gradual economic recovery. The Reuters Tankan, which strongly correlates with the Bank of Japan's quarterly tankan survey, found manufacturers' mood is expected to worsen over the next three months, while service-sector sentiment is seen rising further.

5. About 52,200 net new jobs were created in the third quarter, data from national statistics office INSEE showed on Thursday. The job report is a sign a fragile recovery could finally be strong enough to make a dent in an unemployment rate of around 10 percent.

II. Market Overview
FX
The dollar climbed to a 3-1/2-month high against the yen on Thursday as markets weighed how President-elect Donald Trump's policies could affect economic growth. The greenback rose more than 1 percent to 106.94 yen. The dollar also rose 0.3 percent against a basket of major world currencies, touching its highest in more than two weeks. Trump's election also bolstered the British pound, which rose to a one-month high against the dollar, as the president-elect's call for renegotiating trade deals set the United States and Britain in line to potentially join forces. The New Zealand dollar fell almost 1 percent after the central bank cut rates on Wednesday and signalled the possible end to easing. The euro fell to $1.0865, its lowest against the greenback since Oct. 25. The Mexican peso fell to a low of 20.64 to the dollar, nearing its all-time low mark touched on Wednesday.

Precious Metals
Gold fell more than 1 percent on Thursday after the dollar rose to a 3-1/2 month high against the yen, as markets weighed the election of Donald Trump as U.S. president and how his policies could affect economic growth. Spot gold was down at $1,259.68 an ounce, after touching $1,258.06, its lowest since Oct 18. U.S. gold futures settled down 0.6 percent at $1,266.40. In other precious metals, silver was up 0.4 percent at $18.55 an ounce. Spot platinum fell almost 3 percent to $971.98 an ounce. Palladium, on the other hand, rose for the fifth straight session, up 2 percent to $688.6.

Commodities
1.Crude Oil
Oil prices settled more than 1 percent lower on Thursday as markets recovered from shock over U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's victory and focused on oversupply concerns, as well as whether OPEC will decide later this month to cut production. Brent crude settled down 54 cents, or 1.1 percent, at $45.84 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude ended 61 cents, or 1.4 percent, lower at $44.66.

2. Base Metals
Copper surged more than 5 percent to a 16-month high on Thursday as speculation that U.S. infrastructure spending could jump under a Republican administration unleashed a wave of interest in industrial metals. Zinc hit a 5-1/2 year peak and nickel was at its highest since July 2015. London Metal Exchange copper closed up 3.5 percent at $5,601 a tonne. Aluminium ended the day up 1 percent at $1,770. Zinc closed at $2,524 a tonne, up 1.9 percent. Tin closed 1.1 percent higher at $21,505 a tonne. Nickel ended the day down 0.3 percent at $11,540, while lead closed 0.6 percent higher at $2,154.

U.S. Treasuries
U.S. Treasury yields climbed on Thursday, extending steep gains from the previous session, as investors continued to price in higher interest rates under an incoming Republican administration that is expected to increase spending seen as inflationary. Another weak Treasuries auction, this time of U.S. 30-year bonds, further weighed on prices. In late trading, U.S. 10-year notes were last down 14/32 in price, yielding 2.113 percent, up from 2.064 percent late on Wednesday. Yields rose as high as 2.125 percent, the highest since January. Thirty-year bonds were down one point in price to yield 2.940 percent, up from 2.881 percent on Wednesday. Earlier, yields reached 2.942 percent, also the highest since January. U.S. two-year yields, as a result, rose to 0.927 percent, their highest since late May. They were last at 0.911 percent.

Stock Market
1. U.S. Equities
U.S. banking sector shares on Thursday surged to levels not seen since the midst of the 2008 financial crisis, pushing the Dow to an all-time high, while technology shares sank as Wall Street rearranged its bets to benefit from Donald Trump's presidency. The Dow Jones industrial average jumped 1.17 percent to end at 18,807.88, smashing through its previous record high set in August by almost 1 percent. The S&P 500 rose 0.2 percent to 2,167.48 while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.81 percent to 5,208.80, hurt by losses in tech shares.

2. Hong Kong Equities
Hong Kong stocks rebounded on Thursday from the previous session's 3-month low as global markets made a dramatic U-turn after a punishing selloff in the wake of Republican Donald Trump's shock win in the U.S. presidential election. The Hang Seng index rose 1.9 percent, to 22,839.11, while the China Enterprises Index gained 1.8 percent, to 9,545.85 points.


(2016-11-11)
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