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ICBC Global Financial Market Daily Review--November 23, 2016
 

I. Yesterday's News
1. U.S. home resales rose in October to their highest level in more than 9-1/2 years as homebuyers, buoyed by an improving labor market, took advantage of still-low mortgage rates to snatch up properties after many were shut out during the busy summer selling season. The jump in sales was further evidence of a pickup in economic growth early in the fourth quarter. The dollar was little changed against a basket of currencies, while prices for U.S. government bonds rose marginally. U.S. stocks were almost flat.

2. Chinese Vice Premier Wang Yang said on Tuesday that U.S. policies toward China under President-elect Donald Trump may be uncertain, but he is optimistic because of the U.S. business community's enthusiasm for U.S.-China trade. At a luncheon with U.S. and Chinese business people and government officials, Wang said he believed that businesses and the U.S. government would ultimately make the "right choices" to take advantage of market opportunities in China's economy. "What the U.S. government will do we will wait and see" Wang said.

3. OPEC will debate an oil output cut of 4.0-4.5 percent for all of its members except Libya and Nigeria next week but the deal's success hinges on an agreement from Iraq and Iran, which are far from certain to give full backing. Three OPEC sources told Reuters a gathering of experts from the oil producer group in Vienna had decided on Tuesday to recommend that a ministerial meeting on Nov. 30 debate a proposal from member Algeria to reduce output by that amount. But sources also said the representatives of Iran, Iraq and Indonesia had expressed reservations about their level of participation in what would be the group's first supply-limiting deal since 2008.

4. A magnitude 7.4 earthquake rocked northern Japan early on Tuesday, briefly disrupting cooling functions at a nuclear plant and generating a small tsunami. A wave of up to 1.4 metres (4.5 ft) high was recorded at Sendai, about 70 km (45 miles) north of Fukushima. The cooling system for a storage pool for spent nuclear fuel at the reactor at its Fukushima Daini Plant was initially halted on Tuesday, but was restarted soon after. Japanese financial markets were little affected.

5. New Zealand consumers are spending more cautiously even as their household wealth rises, making it harder to get inflation back up to desirable levels, Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Deputy Governor Geoff Bascand said on Tuesday. Bascand said the bank believed this consumer caution would prove to be a temporary phenomenon. Indeed, Bascand noted that global forces still stood in the way of higher prices.

II. Market Overview
FX
The dollar resumed its uptrend on Tuesday, helped by a surge in U.S. existing home sales last month that further cemented expectations not only of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in December, but also of further tightening next year. In late trading, the dollar rose 0.4 percent against the yen to 111.18 yen. The dollar index was little changed on the day at 101.07 as the euro inched lower against the dollar to $1.0622. The shared currency was not far from a nearly one-year low against the dollar hit last week.

Precious Metals
Gold edged lower on Tuesday after U.S. equities hit all-time highs on market expectations for higher growth and more spending from a Donald Trump presidency. Spot gold was down 0.15 percent at $1,211.86 an ounce. U.S. gold futures settled up 0.1 percent at $1,211.20 per ounce.

Commodities
1.Crude Oil
Oil ended little changed on Tuesday in volatile trade that saw prices rise and fall by $1 a barrel depending on the latest comment from OPEC officials. Officials at the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting tried to hammer out the details of an agreement to cut output before a formal meeting on Nov. 30. Brent futures gained 22 cents, or 0.45 percent, to settle at $49.12 a barrel, its highest close since the end of October, while U.S. crude lost 21 cents, or 0.44 percent, to finish at $48.03.

2. Base Metals
Copper hit a one-week high on Tuesday, powered by signs of tighter supply and as investors betting on rising U.S. inflation and a further depreciation of the yuan bought the metal as a hedge. London Metal Exchange copper ended up 1 percent at $5,613 a tonne after hitting a one-week high of $5,687 earlier.

U.S. Treasuries
Most U.S. Treasuries were steady on Tuesday after the U.S. Treasury Department saw solid demand for its $34 billion sale of five-year notes, the second sale of $88 billion in new supply this week. Two-year note yields rose as high as 1.107 percent earlier, the highest level since April 2010, before falling back to 1.08 percent. Five-year note yields were trading just below 11-month highs, at 1.78 percent. Benchmark 10-year note yields ended little changed on the day to yield 2.32 percent.

Stock Market
1. U.S. Equities
Wall Street settled higher, extended gains post U.S. Presidential election, with Dow to close above the 19,000 mark for the first time ever. The Dow Jones industrial average closed up 67.18 points, or 0.35 percent, at 19,023.87. The S&P 500 gained 4.76 points, or 0.22 percent, at 2,202.94. The Nasdaq Composite added 17.49 points, or 0.33 percent, at 5,386.35.

2. Hong Kong Equities
Hong Kong stocks posted their biggest gain in nearly two weeks on Tuesday, after major U.S. benchmarks hit fresh peaks overnight, setting a bullish tone for Asian markets. The market was also propped up by a surge in energy shares on prospects of oil producing countries agreeing to curb output. The Hang Seng index rose 1.4 percent, to 22,678.07, while the China Enterprises Index gained 2.2 percent, to 9,651.45 points.


(2016-11-23)
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