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ICBC Global Financial Market Daily Review--November 25, 2016
 

I. Yesterday's News
1. The European Central Bank sees rising risks to euro zone financial stability and is watching for any fallout from Italy's constitutional referendum next month, ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio said on Thursday. In an unusually downbeat Financial Stability Review, the ECB as a whole also warned that political shifts on both sides of the Atlantic, including a potentially protectionist U.S. administration under Donald Trump, may trigger a surge in government borrowing costs and raise concerns about indebted countries. Speaking to Reuters in an interview later, Constancio said he did not think financial markets were pricing in the risk of a break-up in the euro zone despite a recent rise in Italian bond yields.

2. British consumer credit expanded last month at the fastest pace in nearly 10 years and mortgage approvals hit a five-month high, according to industry data on Thursday. The British Bankers' Association figures underlined the strength of consumer demand since Britain voted to leave the European Union in June, although rising inflation and a slowing economy are expected to weigh on households next year. Consumer credit increased at an annual rate of more than 7 percent in October, marking the strongest growth since November 2006, the BBA said.

3. Governments need to get over the fixation with debt levels and ramp up spending on growth-friendly policies while cutting tax burdens where possible, the OECD said on Thursday. However, OECD chief economist Catherine Mann insisted that it was a not call for blind deficit spending and across the board corporate tax cuts. Pre-releasing a special chapter in its biannual Economic Outlook, the OECD said that letting deficits rise to finance investment and ease tax burdens could raise economic output more than it increases debt.

4. The German economy halved its growth rate to 0.2 percent in the third quarter despite rising private consumption and higher state spending as weak foreign trade slowed overall activity in Europe's biggest economy. Confirming a preliminary reading for growth, the Federal Statistics Office said on Thursday that net foreign trade subtracted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth as exports fell by 0.4 percent on the quarter and imports rose by 0.2 percent.

5. Russia could revise down its 2017 oil production plans if a global output freeze pact comes into force, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Thursday. "According to our plans, (Russian) oil output is going up next year. If we keep production at the current level we are making our contribution, for us that essentially means a cut of 200,000-300,000 barrels per day (in 2017)", he said.

II. Market Overview
FX
The dollar steadied after breaking past more of last year's peaks against the euro on Thursday, with only the March 2015 high of $1.0457 standing in the way of a push towards parity that banks are again saying is on the cards. The dollar hit an eight-month high against the yen and an almost 14-year high against a basket of currencies that measures its broader strength. The euro steadied at $1.0573 after hitting lows of $1.0518 while the dollar index also steadied at 101.57, just off the morning high of 102.05.

Precious Metals
Gold edged lower on Thursday as the dollar traded within reach of an almost 14-year high hit on positive U.S. economic data, which increased expectations the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates in December. Spot gold was down 0.4 percent at $1,183.20 an ounce.

Commodities
1.Crude Oil
Oil prices were little changed on Thursday ahead of next week's meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to discuss implementation of its proposed cap on production. Brent crude futures settled up 5 cents at $49.00 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 3 cents at $47.99.

2. Base Metals
Zinc prices jumped to their highest in more than eight years on Thursday and copper headed towards its 2016 peak as funds piled in on expectations of stronger demand and tighter supplies. Benchmark zinc on the London Metal Exchange ended up 2.1 percent at $2,725 a tonne, off an earlier $2,760, its highest since March 2008. Copper closed up 2.2 percent at $5,868 a tonne, its highest since Nov. 11.

U.S. Treasuries
U.S. markets was closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Stock Market
1. U.S. Equities
U.S. markets was closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.

2. Hong Kong Equities
Hong Kong's benchmark index retreated on Thursday despite Wall Street maintaining a solid run, with investors in emerging markets shifting attention back to the impact of a surging U.S. dollar, and an increasingly likely U.S. rate hike next month. The Hang Seng index fell 0.3 percent, to 22,608.49, but the China Enterprises Index gained 0.1 percent, to 9,678.77 points.


(2016-11-25)
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