I. Yesterday's News 1. OPEC was trying on Monday to rescue a deal to limit oil output as tensions grew among the producer group and non-OPEC member Russia, with top exporter Saudi Arabia saying markets would rebalance even without an agreement. A gathering of OPEC experts failed to reach a compromise on how exactly the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries should reduce production, according to several sources briefed on the matter. After more than nine hours of talks, Iran and Iraq continued to insist on higher output numbers, said the sources. Meanwhile, the Algerian and Venezuelan oil ministers were travelling to Moscow on Monday in a final attempt to persuade Russia to take part in cuts instead of merely freezing output.
2. Global growth will pick up faster than previously expected in the coming months as the Trump administration's planned tax cuts and public spending fire up the U.S. economy, the OECD said on Monday, revising up its forecasts. In its twice-yearly Economic Outlook, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development estimated global growth would accelerate from 2.9 percent this year to 3.3 percent in 2017 and reach 3.6 percent in 2018. The Paris-based organisation was slightly more optimistic about the U.S. outlook, with a forecast for growth next year of 2.3 percent, up from 2.1 percent in its last set of estimates dating from September.
3. Stalling recovery would be the greatest risk facing the euro zone's economy, the head of the European Central Bank said on Monday, underscoring, before an important policy decision next week, the ECB's focus on supporting growth. "Right now the greatest risk comes from impaired growth," Draghi said. "The greatest risk comes from the possibility the recovery doesn't firm up and stalls." "At our monetary policy meeting in December we'll assess the various options that would allow the Governing Council to preserve the very substantial degree of monetary accommodation," Draghi said.
4. The highly uncertain outlook for Britain's economy as the country prepares to leave the European Union means the Bank of England should keep interest rates on hold, one of the bank's top policymakers said on Monday. Gertjan Vlieghe suggested the BoE would be in no hurry to either cut or raise rates. "For now, given our current economic outlook, and given the level of the exchange rate..., the best contribution that monetary policy can make to returning inflation to target while avoiding undesirable volatility in output growth is to keep interest rates where they are now," Vlieghe said.
5.Canyon Bridge Capital Partners, a buyout fund that agreed to acquire U.S.-based chip maker Lattice Semiconductor Corp for $1.3 billion earlier this month, is funded partly by cash originating from China's central government and also has indirect links to its space program. Reuters, in a review of about a dozen filings from China's state-run corporate register, has established that the financial investment in Canyon Bridge originates from China's State Council. This link could draw more U.S. regulatory scrutiny over the Lattice deal on concerns that technology gained through the purchase could be used by China's military, according to analysts. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) has yet to sign off on the agreement.
II. Market Overview FX The dollar fell on Monday along with U.S. Treasury yields, surrendering some gains from the sharp rally following Donald Trump's surprise victory in the U.S. presidential election. The index slipped further to 101.32. The greenback fell 1.6 percent to 111.32 Japanese yen overnight. However, it pared about half of those losses on Monday, and was last down 0.75 percent at 112.38 yen. The euro climbed to an 11-day high of $1.0686. The euro retreated from those gains by the start of North American trading. It was last up 0.1 percent against the dollar at $1.0595.
Precious Metals Gold prices rose more than 1 percent on Monday, recovering from their lowest levels since February as the dollar and long-dated U.S. Treasury bond yields retreated from recent highs. Spot gold was up 0.9 percent at $1,193.38 an ounce, after climbing as high as $1,197.54 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures settled up 1.05 percent at $1,190.80 per ounce.
Commodities 1.Crude Oil Oil prices gained more than 2 percent on Monday in volatile trading after falling as much as 2 percent, recouping losses as the market reacted to the shaky prospect of major producers being able to agree output cuts at a meeting on Wednesday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled up $1.02, or 2.21 percent at $47.08 a barrel. Brent crude rose $1.00, or 2.12 percent, to $48.24 a barrel.
2. Base Metals Zinc soared to a nine-year high on Monday and lead hit a five-year peak as reports of more infrastructure investment in China and signs of strong property investment in the world's top metals user sparked heavy buying. London Metal Exchange zinc surged more than 5 percent to $2,985 a tonne, its highest since October 2007. It ended up 2.9 percent at $2,900. Lead jumped more than 7 percent to $2,576.50, its highest in more than five years. It ended up 5.5 percent at $2,523. Copper rose nearly 3 percent to a high of $6,045.50, its highest in just over a year. It was last bid up 0.02 percent at $5,880.
U.S. Treasuries U.S. Treasury yields fell on Monday from last week's highs on month-end buying and views that a selloff that followed the surprise U.S. presidential election victory of Donald Trump may have gone too far. U.S. 10-year Treasuries were last up 14/32 in price to yield 2.3214 percent. Two-year notes were last up 1/32 in price to yield 1.1109 percent, from a yield of 1.135 percent late Friday. 30-year yields last down three basis points from late Friday at 2.9851 percent and seven-year yields last down five basis points at 2.1371 percent.
Stock Market 1. U.S. Equities U.S. stocks declined on Monday for their worst performance in nearly a month, weighed down by a pullback in the financial and consumer discretionary sectors as some investors booked profits on the heels of a record-setting week. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 54.24 points, or 0.28 percent, to 19,097.9, the S&P 500 lost 11.63 points, or 0.53 percent, to 2,201.72 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 30.11 points, or 0.56 percent, to 5,368.81.
2. Hong Kong Equities Hong Kong's stock market climbed to the highest closing level in nearly three weeks on Monday, with small-caps rising sharply in response to regulators announcing that a trading link between Hong Kong and Shenzhen will launch on Dec. 5. The Hang Seng index rose 0.5 percent, to 22,830.57, while the China Enterprises Index gained 0.9 percent, to 9,875.54 points.
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