I. Yesterday's News 1. With hours to go before Americans vote, Democrat Hillary Clinton has about a 90 percent chance of defeating Republican Donald Trump in the race for the White House, according to the final Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project. The former secretary of state was on track to win 303 votes in the Electoral College to Trump's 235, clearing the 270 needed for victory, the survey found. The race in Michigan and Pennsylvania was close to call, where both candidates were making their final efforts.
2. South Korean prosecutors raided the offices of Samsung Electronics on Tuesday as part of a probe over a political scandal involving President Park Geun-hye and her friend who is alleged to have exerted improper influence in state affairs. South Korea's Yonhap News Agency reported prosecutors are looking into whether Samsung improperly provided financial assistance to Choi's daughter.
3. Banks tightened standards on commercial real estate loans during the third quarter but left lending practices for commercial and industrial loans virtually unchanged overall, according to a survey of loan officers released on Monday by the Federal Reserve. For households, some banks reported easing lending standards on mortgages eligible for purchase by government-sponsored enterprises and some other types of mortgages. However, consumer loans remained much like the previous quarter. On commercial real estate, "significant net fractions of banks reported tightening standards for construction and land development loans and loans secured by multifamily residential properties," the survey said.
4. The European Central Bank is not considering reducing its bond-buying program known as Quantitative Easing, and is looking instead at how far to extend it after the current March 2017 deadline, the Bank of Italy said on Monday. Luigi Signorini, a member of the Italian central bank's executive board, was asked during testimony to parliament whether the ECB was looking at how to taper QE.
5. Investor sentiment in the euro zone improved further in November, reaching its highest level for the year and easing pressure for further stimulus measures by the European Central Bank, a survey showed on Monday. The euro zone index produced by the Frankfurt-based Sentix group rose to 13.1 from 8.5 in October, far exceeding the 9.1 consensus in a Reuters poll of analysts. “The recovery in the euro zone accelerated in November,” Sentix said in a statement. “The overall index for the euro zone rose to a new high for the year, driven by revenue expectations that are continuing to increase.” Retail sales in the 19 countries sharing the euro fell by 0.2 percent in September from August, the European Union's statistics office Eurostat said on Monday. It was the second month of falling sale. Compared to the same month last year, retail sales were up 1.1 percent.
II. Market Overview FX The dollar rose on Monday after the chances of winning Tuesday's contest by U.S. Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton increased. The greenback gained 0.75 percent against a basket of currencies. The dollar rose 1.4 percent to 104.58 yen. The euro fell 0.9 percent against the dollar to $1.1035. Sterling also slipped against the dollar, falling 1 percent to $1.2390.
Precious Metals Gold prices fell on Monday, posting their biggest one-day drop in five weeks as the dollar and stocks rallied. The spot gold price was down at $1,281.32 an ounce. U.S. gold futures settled down 1.9 percent at $1,279.40 per ounce. Silver was down 1 percent at $18.21 an ounce. Platinum rose slightly to $1,000.30 an ounce, while palladium surged almost 4 percent to $651.70 an ounce.
Commodities 1.Crude Oil Oil prices settled more than 1 percent higher on Monday, supported by news that U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton will not face charges over her emails. Gains, however, were capped by a rallying dollar and by doubts over OPEC's planned production cuts. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled at $44.89 per barrel, up 82 cents, or 1.9 percent. Brent crude ended 57 cents, or 1.3 percent, higher at $46.15 a barrel.
2. Base Metals Copper reached its highest price since March on Monday after the FBI cleared U.S. presidential candidate Hillary Clinton of wrongdoing after further investigation of her email practices, boosting global markets before Tuesday's election. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange closed up 2 percent to $5,098 a tonne, the highest since March 18. Elsewhere, nickel jumped by the most since October 2011, up 6.4 percent to $11,125 per tonne. This was also its highest level since August 2015. Zinc hit a fresh five-year high of $2,503.50 a tonne to close 0.9 percent up at $2,468. Tin added 0.8 percent to $21,845, its highest since Aug. 2014.
U.S. Treasuries U.S. Treasury yields rose on Monday, as risk appetite improved after the Federal Bureau of Investigation cleared Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton of any wrongdoing in the use of a private email server. In late trading, benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note yields were down 11/32 in price to yield 1.824 percent. U.S. 30-year bond prices fell 17/32, yielding 2.598 percent. Two-year note yields, which are most sensitive to interest rate changes, were at 0.817 percent.
Stock Market 1. U.S. Equities U.S. stocks on Monday racked up their biggest one-day percentage gain since March 1, after the FBI said it would not press criminal charges against her over the use of a private email server. The Dow Jones industrial average jumped 371.32 points or 2.08 percent to end at 18,259.60 points and the S&P 500 surged 46.34 points or 2.22 percent to 2,131.52. The Nasdaq Composite added 119.80 points or 2.37 percent to 5,166.17. The CBOE Volatility index, Wall Street's so-called fear gauge, tumbled 17 percent, its biggest one-day drop since June 28, just after Britain voted to leave the European Union.
2. Hong Kong Equities Hong Kong stocks joined a global rebound on Monday after the FBI cleared Democrat Hillary Clinton in an email investigation. The Hang Seng index ended up 0.7 percent at 22,801.40 points, while the China Enterprises Index gained 1.2 percent to 9,608.24.
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