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ICBC Global Financial Market Daily Review--October 19, 2016
 

I. Yesterday's News
1. U.S. consumer prices recorded their biggest gain in five months in September as the cost of gasoline and rents surged, pointing to a steady pickup of inflation that could keep the Federal Reserve on track to raise interest rates in December. However, underlying inflation moderated amid a slowdown in the pace of increases in healthcare costs after recent robust gains. The dollar was little changed against a basket of currencies, while prices for longer-dated U.S. Treasuries rose slightly.

2. Nine regional Federal Reserve banks pushed for an increase in the rate commercial banks are charged for emergency loans in September, the latest sign the US central bank is close to tightening monetary policy, minutes from the discount rate meeting showed on Tuesday. However, three Fed policymakers dissented in favor of an immediate hike in the benchmark rate and the US central bank appears primed to raise it in December should jobs and inflation strengthen further. Traders currently see a 65 percent chance the Fed will raise rates in December, according to data from CME Group.

3. OPEC should be able to reach a deal next month to limit oil production without too much disagreement about individual countries' output levels, the producer group's secretary-general said on Tuesday. Mohammed Barkindo also told journalists on the sidelines of the Oil & Money conference that Russia, which is not in OPEC, was not backtracking on its pledge to contribute to output limits should OPEC reach a deal at its next meeting on Nov. 30. "We expect that all the building blocks will be in place in a timely fashion for the implementation," Barkindo told the conference.

4.Annual consumer price inflation (CPI) rose to 0.2 percent month-on-month in September, the Office for National Statistics said, beating economists' forecast of 0.1 percent in a Reuters' poll. On a yearly basis, the CPI rose 1.0 percent, the highest since November 2014, also better than consensus forecast of 0.1 percent in a Reuters' poll. In a separate report, the producer price index picked up 0.2 percent and 1.2 percent in September on a monthly and yearly basis respectively. The read is the largest annual growth since September 2013, slightly better than consensus forecast of a 1.1 percent gain.

5. Australia's central bank says coming data on inflation and employment will be critical for interest rates at its next meeting on November, opening the door to a possible easing in policy. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held benchmark interest rates unchanged at 1.5 percent earlier this month. It also highlighted the importance of coming data on consumer prices for setting inflation expectations, which suggest subdued inflation.

II. Market Overview
FX
The U.S. dollar was mildly weaker on Tuesday for the second straight day as investors took some profits from the greenback's recent strength and evaluated whether the Federal Reserve would to raise interest rates this year. The dollar has largely tracked U.S. Treasury yields in recent weeks. The market is also focused on the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was last unchanged on the day at 97.890. The pound was last up 0.92 percent against the dollar at $1.2294.

Precious Metals
Gold prices rose on Tuesday, supported by weakness in the U.S. dollar index, though receding worries about the outcome of the U.S. election and expectations of a U.S. rate increase in December could mean lower levels. Spot gold was up 0.5 percent at $1,262.24 an ounce. U.S. gold futures settled up 0.50 percent at $1,262.90.

Commodities
1.Crude Oil
Oil prices settled up on Tuesday on expectations of OPEC output curbs, then extended gains in post-settlement trade as an industry group's data showed an unexpected draw in U.S. crude inventories last week. Crude stockpiles fell 3.8 million barrels to 467.1 million barrels in the week to Oct. 14, the American Petroleum Institute reported. Analysts had expected an increase of 2.7 million barrels. Brent crude settled up 16 cents, or 0.3 percent, at $51.68 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude ended the session up 35 cents, or 0.7 percent, at $50.29.

2. Base Metals
Zinc and other metals prices rose on Tuesday, boosted by strong credit data in top metals consumer China and a weaker dollar, while tin gained on falling output in key producer Myanmar. Benchmark zinc prices on the London Metal Exchange closed up 0.5 percent at $2,285 a tonne, off an earlier session high of $2,313. Tin was one of the best performers. LME tin rallied 1 percent to $19,625. LME copper finished 0.1 percent firmer at $4,681. LME nickel closed 1.2 percent stronger at $10,410. LME aluminium was the worst performer, dropping 1.1 percent to end at $1,642.

U.S. Treasuries
U.S. Treasury yields fell on Tuesday in line with their U.K. counterparts on chances that parliament may have to ratify a British exit from the European Union, which reduced some bets that the U.K. would lose access to the single market. Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury notes were last up 4/32 in price for a yield of 1.750 percent, down 1.6 basis points and not far below a four-month peak of 1.841 percent reached on Monday.

Stock Market
1. U.S. Equities
Wall Street advanced on Tuesday to give the S&P 500 its best day this month on the heels of solid earnings reports from names such as UnitedHealth and Netflix that put corporate profits on track to snap a four-quarter streak of declines.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 75.54 points, or 0.42 percent, to 18,161.94, the S&P 500 gained 13.1 points, or 0.62 percent, to 2,139.6 and the Nasdaq Composite added 44.013 points, or 0.85 percent, to 5,243.836.

2. Hong Kong Equities
Hong Kong shares rose the most in one-and-a-half months on Tuesday, helped by a rebound in Chinese stocks as Shanghai's U.S. dollar-denominated B shares stabilised following the previous day's sell-off. The Hang Seng index rose 1.6 percent to 23,394.39 points, while the China Enterprises Index gained 1.88 percent to 9,720.20.


(2016-10-26)
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