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ICBC Global Financial Market Daily Review--October 21, 2016
 

I. Yesterday's News
1. The European Central Bank left ultra-loose monetary policy unchanged on Thursday but kept the door open to more stimulus in December, firmly shooting down any talk of tapering its 1.74 trillion euro asset-buying programme. Offering few clues to the euro zone central bank's next move, ECB President Mario Draghi left a wide range of options on the table and emphasized that a long-awaited rise in inflation is predicated on "very substantial" monetary accommodation. Draghi warned that an expected rise in inflation in the coming month would be driven mostly by the fading effect of past oil price falls, raising doubts whether it will be sustainable. This may be seen as a de facto commitment to some form of extension of asset purchases. But he also said that any decision about the ECB's policy stance would be left until December, when the bank would have to decide whether to extend its bond buys.

2. U.S. home resales surged in September after two straight months of declines as first-time buyers stepped into the market, pointing to underlying momentum in the economy. While other data on Thursday showed a bigger-than-expected increase in the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits last week, the trend continued to suggest that the labor market remains strong. Labor market strength is one of the key factors underpinning the housing market.

3. The German economy should remain on a solid footing in 2016 despite weakness in the global economy, the finance ministry said in its monthly report on Friday, adding that it expects a slight growth in exports over the rest of the year. It said low interest rates, a robust job market and rising wages were contributing to a moderate upswing, which prompted the government this month to lift its 2016 growth forecast to 1.8 percent from 1.7 percent previously, which would be the strongest expansion rate in half a decade. Those factors have made private consumption the main growth drivers in an economy that has traditionally relied on exports for growth. This should remain the case in the second half of the year, the ministry said. The ministry said industrial production was weak in the third quarter and would provide only a small boost for the economy in the second half of the year.

4. Australian employment unexpectedly fell 9,800 in September as firms shed a huge 53,000 full-time jobs, a disappointing report that slugged the local dollar and could rekindle speculation of further rate cuts. Thursday's data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed the unemployment rate stayed at a three-year trough of 5.6 percent, but only because more people stopped looking for work. Indeed, the participation rate dropped to its lowest since May 2014 at 65.5 percent.

5. The Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates later this year if the U.S. economy remains on track, one of the most influential Fed officials said on Wednesday in perhaps the clearest policy signal yet from the central bank.

II. Market Overview
FX
The euro fell to a four-month low against the U.S. dollar on Thursday and the U.S. dollar index rose to a seven-month high after the European Central Bank kept the door open to more stimulus in December. The euro dropped 0.45 percent against the U.S. dollar to $1.0925, after earlier falling as low as $1.0916, the lowest since June 24. The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies jumped to a high of 98.318, after earlier rising as high as 98.404 the highest since March 10.

Precious Metals
Gold eased slightly on Thursday after three days of gains as the U.S. dollar rose and the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged, maintaining the parameters of its 1.74 trillion euro ($1.95 trillion) asset buying scheme. Spot gold was down 0.2 percent at $1,265.8 an ounce, after tapping a two-week high at $1,273.82. U.S. December gold futures settled down 0.2 percent at $1,267.50.

Commodities
1.Crude Oil
Oil prices settled down more than 2 percent on Thursday, as a resurgent dollar encouraged players to take profit on the previous day's rally that sent U.S. crude to 15-month highs. Benchmark Brent crude for December delivery settled down $1.29, or 2.5 percent, at $51.38 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude's November contract , which expired as the front-month, fell $1.17, or 2.3 percent, to finish at $50.43. WTI's December contract, which will be front-month from Friday, slid $1.19 to settle at $50.63.

2. Base Metals
Aluminium slid to its lowest in nearly a month on Thursday on worries about oversupply after a rise in output from top producer China and heavy flows into LME warehouses in Asia. Benchmark aluminium on the LME shed 1.2 percent to close at $1,612 a tonne, its weakest since Sept. 22. LME three-month copper fell 0.4 percent to end at $4,652 a tonne. Zinc dropped 0.9 percent to close at $2,287 and nickel slid 1.8 percent to $10,130.

U.S. Treasuries
Longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields fell on Thursday after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said there was no discussion at the ECB's latest policy meeting on possible changes to its 1 trillion-plus euro bond purchase program. In light, choppy trading, benchmark 10-year Treasury notes were unchanged in price to yield 1.752 percent, while the 30-year bond was up 8/32 in price, yielding 2.501 percent, which was down more than 1 basis point from Wednesday. Shorter-dated yields were up 2 basis points on the day.

Stock Market
1. U.S. Equities
U.S. stocks ended a choppy session on Thursday with a slight decline as investors digested the latest round of earnings, with a sharp drop in telecoms offset by gains in healthcare. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 40.27 points, or 0.22 percent, to 18,162.35, the S&P 500 lost 2.95 points, or 0.14 percent, to 2,141.34 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 4.58 points, or 0.09 percent, to 5,241.83.

2. Hong Kong Equities
Hong Kong shares closed up on Thursday, led by a jump in energy shares as China raised retail prices of gasoline. The Hang Seng index rose 0.3 percent, to 23,374.40, while the China Enterprises Index gained 0.5 percent, to 9,686.38 points.


(2016-10-26)
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