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ICBC Global Financial Market Daily Review--October 25, 2016
 

I. Yesterday's News
1. The U.S. central bank will raise its policy rate three more times by the end of next year, one of the Federal Reserve's most vocal policy doves said on Monday, as long as inflation expectations and the labor market continue to improve. That expectation is squarely in line with the median forecast by the Fed's 17 policymakers at their most recent meeting, which took place last month. The forecast suggested short-term rates will be between 1 percent to 1.25 percent by the end of next year. The most important thing, Evans said, is for the Fed to be more explicit about what conditions would prompt further rate increases. Saying the U.S. economy is doing "quite well" and the labor market has been "quite strong," Evans suggested that he expects economic growth of between 2 percent and 2.5 percent in the second half of this year.

2. Energy ministers from Russia and Qatar along with the OPEC secretary general discussed oil markets and mechanisms of possible joint actions at their meeting on Monday, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak told reporters. Novak said that oil supply was still higher than demand and is confident about a deal with the OPEC. He said that Russia considered oil output freeze to be an effective tool for stabilising global oil markets and a short-term oil output cut would reduce market volatility. OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo said, "While there are signs that the rebalancing of the fundamentals is under way, the large stock overhang continues to be a major concern," Barkindo said. He expected a deal agreed in Algiers will help reduce market volatility.

3. Economic activity in the euro zone rose more than expected in October to its highest level this year, despite that firms raising prices at the sharpest rate in more than five years, a survey showed. In a report, market research group Markit said that its flash Euro Zone Composite Output Index increased to 53.7 October, from the prior month's reading of 52.6. That was the highest reading since December 2015. It was far above the 50 point line indicating growth in activity. A subindex measuring output prices rose to 50.5 from 50.0, its highest since August 2011.

4. A further easing from the Bank of Canada would bring the central bank closer to unconventional monetary policy and the decision on whether to cut rates again is not one to take lightly, Governor Stephen Poloz said on Monday. "We have to weigh the risks of waiting longer against what are the costs associated with doing something more immediate," Poloz said during his appearance before lawmakers. Earlier, the bank renewed its inflation target and said it will change the way it measures inflation in order to better gauge long-term trends. The move would make it harder to predict the central bank's policy changes, analysts said. The Bank of Canada have renewed their inflation target at the midpoint of a range of one to three percent for another five years, in line with market consensus. The central bank said that the threshold for changing the inflation target is high.

5. The Bank of Japan said on Monday it is closely monitoring bank lending to the real estate sector to guard against excessive credit that could lead to overheating and pose risks to financial stability. The central bank is concerned because the ratio of real estate investment to nominal gross domestic product is uncomfortably high and banks are extremely willing to extend loans to property developers. The BOJ also expressed concern about falling yields on office buildings in major cities, which suggests that investors have driven prices too high, the report showed.

II. Market Overview
FX
The U.S. dollar hovered near a nine-month high against a basket of major currencies and touched a one-week high against the yen on Monday on growing expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate increase in December. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was up slightly at 98.775, just off a roughly nine-month high of 98.846 touched earlier on Monday. In morning U.S. trading, the dollar rose to 104.32 yen , the highest in a week. The euro was down 0.08 percent against the dollar at $1.0873, near a more than seven-month low of $1.0857 touched Friday.

Precious Metals
Gold prices slipped on Monday as the dollar strengthened to a fresh near nine-month high on growing speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve would hike interest rates in December. However, improving physical demand from major Asian consumers and lingering uncertainty around the Nov. 8 U.S. election could lend support in coming weeks, analysts said. Spot gold was down 0.2 percent at $1,264.06 an ounce, while U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled down 0.3 percent at $1,263.70.

Commodities
1.Crude Oil
Oil prices dipped on Monday, with U.S. crude briefly falling below $50 per barrel, on news of the impending restart of Britain's Buzzard oilfield and Iraq's wish to be exempted from OPEC production cuts. Brent, the international benchmark for crude, settled down 32 cents, or 0.6 percent, at $51.46 a barrel. Its session low was $50.50. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 33 cents, or 0.7 percent, to settle at $50.52.

2. Base Metals
Zinc led base metals higher on Monday, fuelled by a rise in investors' risk appetite and stronger physical demand in top consumer China. Benchmark zinc on the London Metal Exchange closed 2.3 percent higher at $2,312 a tonne, bouncing back from a 1.2 percent loss on Friday. LME copper lagged, edging up 0.1 percent to finish at $4,638. LME aluminium added 0.3 percent to close at $1,630.50.

U.S. Treasuries
U.S. Treasury yields lurched higher on Monday, in line with a rise in global bond yields and gains in U.S. stocks, with traders seeing little action ahead of next week's Federal Reserve policy meeting. U.S. yields, which move inversely to prices, also benefited from incoming government debt supply this week in U.S. two-year, five-year, and seven-year notes, analysts said. In late trading, 10-year Treasury notes were down 7/32 in price to yield 1.764 percent, up from 1.74 percent late Friday. U.S. 30-year bonds fell 16/32 in price, yielding 2.517 percent, up from Friday's 2.492 percent. U.S. two-year note yields were at 0.844 percent, up nearly 2 basis points from Friday's 0.827 percent.

Stock Market
1. U.S. Equities
The S&P 500 hit a two-week high on Monday on the back of strong earnings, while a flurry of acquisitions indicated corporate America continues to see untapped value in the market. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 77.32 points, or 0.43 percent, to 18,223.03, the S&P 500 gained 10.17 points, or 0.47 percent, to 2,151.33 and the Nasdaq Composite added 52.43 points, or 1 percent, to 5,309.83.

2. Hong Kong Equities
Hong Kong stocks firmed on Monday, led by buoyant mainland markets, but gains were capped by concerns over continued yuan weakness and the possibility of a U.S. rate hike in December. The Hang Seng index rose 1.0 percent, to 23,604.08, while the China Enterprises Index gained 1.7 percent, to 9,852.90 points.


(2016-10-26)
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