I. Yesterday's News 1. The European Central Bank is nearly certain to continue buying bonds beyond its March target and to relax its constraints on the purchases to ensure it finds enough paper to buy, central bank sources have told Reuters. ECB policymakers are due to decide in December on the future shape and duration of their quantitative easing (QE) scheme, based on new growth and inflation forecasts. The central bank will evaluate its rule on buying in proportion to the amount of capital paid, buying constraint on individual issuer and yields floor, sources said.
2. New U.S. single-family home sales unexpectedly rose in September, pointing to sustained demand for housing even as data for the prior three months were revised lower. Other reports on Wednesday suggested a stronger pickup in economic growth in the third quarter than is currently anticipated. The goods trade deficit narrowed sharply, while both wholesale and retail inventories increased in September. The Commerce Department said on Wednesday new home sales increased 3.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 593,000 units last month, pulling them close to a nine-year high touched in July. According to Markit's flash survey, the preliminary Services PMI Index came in at 54.8. It was the strongest pace of growth in the services sector since November 2015.
3. Years of heavy money printing by the Bank of Japan has made the bond market dysfunctional and fiscal policy heavily dependent on cheap money offered by the bank, a former BOJ deputy governor said, warning against expanding monetary stimulus further. Toshiro Muto, who retains strong influence among policymakers, also said it would be hard for Japan to intervene in the currency market to stem yen gains unless the currency strengthens well below 100 to the dollar. Muto said the BOJ's shift to a new framework was a welcome move that makes its policy more sustainable. But he warned against expanding monetary stimulus further and called on the BOJ to focus on the demerits of its ultra-easy policy.
4. The mood among German consumers worsened heading into November to reach its lowest level since April this year, linking the fall to fears that weakness in the global economy could hurt German growth. The consumer sentiment indicator, published by the Nuremberg-based GfK institute and based on a survey of around 2,000 Germans, fell to 9.7, compared with an average forecast of a stable reading of 10.0. GfK said despite the fall, consumers remained optimistic about the economy. A sub-index measuring economic expectations rose to a reading of 13.0 in October. Sub-indexes measuring income expectations and propensity to buy both fell, on concerns about more expensive oil which is pushing up prices, leaving households with less money.
5. Australian consumer prices rebounded by more than forecast last quarter while the annual pace of core inflation edged up for the first time in over a year, leading investors to price out almost any chance of a near-term cut in interest rates. The key measures of underlying inflation favoured by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) showed an average rise of 0.4 per cent in the third quarter, matching expectations. The annual pace inched up to 1.6 per cent, from a record low of 1.5 per cent, a tentative sign inflation may have finally bottomed after a run of surprisingly subdued readings. Investors reacted by selling interbank futures so that they implied just a 4 per cent chance of a rate cut at the RBA's next policy meeting on Nov 1.
II. Market Overview FX The U.S. dollar dipped against a basket of major currencies on Wednesday, reflecting nervousness surrounding Federal Reserve monetary policy and the U.S. Election. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was last down 0.09 percent at 98.634 after touching 99.119 on Tuesday, its highest since Feb. 1. The index has risen about 3.2 percent this month, putting it on track for its best month in nearly a year.
Precious Metals Gold prices fell on Wednesday as investor appetite for riskier assets such as equities and crude oil recovered slightly, denting demand for bullion, often considered a safe haven. Spot gold fell 0.6 percent to $1,266.61 an ounce. In the previous session, it hit $1276.67, its highest since Oct. 5. U.S. gold futures settled 0.5 percent lower at $1266.60.
Commodities 1.Crude Oil Oil settled down more than 1 percent on Wednesday even after a surprise drawdown in U.S. crude inventories, as traders remained cautious that OPEC would be able to cut production come late November. Brent crude was down 81 cents, or 1.6 percent, at $49.98 a barrel. It fell as low as $49.65, its lowest since Sept. 30. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slid 78 cents, or 1.6 percent, to $49.18. Its session low was $48.87, its lowest since Oct. 4.
2. Base Metals Tin prices hit their highest in nearly two years on Wednesday on low stocks of metal while copper steadied after the previous session's strong gains, underpinned by a lower dollar. Three-month tin on the London Metal Exchange hit a new high since December 2014 at $20,500 a tonne and closed at $20,425, up 0.5 percent. Benchmark copper closed up 0.1 percent at $4,740 a tonne. Prices hit a two-week peak at $4,754 in earlier trade.
U.S. Treasuries U.S. Treasury debt yields rose on Wednesday, bolstered by a fresh batch of economic data that enhanced the outlook for third-quarter U.S. gross domestic product data due on Friday. The U.S. Treasury's auction of five-year notes showed decent demand, awarded at 1.303 percent, the highest yield since May. U.S. five-year note prices were last down 4/32, yielding 1.302 percent. In late trading, 10-year Treasury notes were down 10/32 in price, yielding 1.793 percent. Earlier, 10-year yields hit a more-than-one-week peak of 1.797 percent. U.S. 30-year bonds were 26/32 lower to yield 2.542 percent, up from Tuesday's 2.502 percent. U.S. two-year note yields were at 0.872 percent. Earlier in New York, two-year yields hit a two-week high of 0.876 percent.
Stock Market 1. U.S. Equities Quarterly results were the main driver for Wall Street on Wednesday as a decline in Apple shares weighed on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, while the price-weighted Dow Industrials was buoyed by gains in Boeing. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 30.06 points, or 0.17 percent, to 18,199.33, the S&P 500 lost 3.73 points, or 0.17 percent, to 2,139.43 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 33.13 points, or 0.63 percent, to 5,250.27.
2. Hong Kong Equities Hong Kong stocks fell the most in nearly two weeks on Wednesday, with market sentiment dampened by weakness on Wall Street and in China. Investors also remained nervous given the U.S. election next month, the Federal Reserve's policy meeting in December, and over the health of China's economy. The Hang Seng index fell 1.0 percent, to 23,325.43, while the China Enterprises Index lost 1.4 percent, to 9,698.85 points.
|