I. Precious Metals
Gold
Gold prices ended little changed on Monday as expectations that the Federal Reserve will press ahead with interest rate rises offset concerns over political tensions in North Korea and the Middle East. Fed Chair Janet Yellen struck a cautious note, saying it would be appropriate to gradually raise rates if the economy continued to perform strongly. Spot gold was up 0.04 percent at $1,254.06 an ounce. On Friday, the metal rose above $1,270 on Friday for the first time since early November following much weaker than expected U.S. jobs data, and after the United States launched a missile strike on a Syrian air base. U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson warned that the strikes were a warning to other nations, including North Korea.
On technical front, gold is trading just above its 200 day moving average of $1,235, a strong retracement support, after rallying for a fourth month. With Bollinger upper band expanding upward and the MACD retaining upturn momentum, gold is expected to breach the resistance of the 50-day moving average at $1,258 after two failed tests.

Silver
Silver prices fell 0.2 percent to $17.93 an ounce after hitting $18.47, the highest since February 27. Technically, the MACD index moved below the axis zero and a dead cross is formed after the metal crossed below the 200-day moving average on Friday. The K-line lingered around the 20-day moving average, a ground lost during one point on Monday, suggesting a bearish tone. Diverging from gold, silver is expected to fall further if it slipped below $17.9.

II. Commodities
Crude Oil
Oil rose on Monday, supported by another shutdown at Libya's largest oilfield over the weekend. Brent crude, the global benchmark, rose 74 cents to settle at $55.98, not far from the one-month high of $56.08 reached on Friday. U.S. crude was up 84 cents to settle at $53.08. Libya's Sharara oilfield was shut on Sunday after a group blocked a pipeline linking it to an oil terminal. The field had only just returned to production, after a week-long stoppage ending in early April. Last week, the United States fired missiles at a Syrian government air base. While analysts point out that Syria produces only small volumes of oil, the Middle East is home to more than a quarter of the world's oil output. Kuwait's oil minister said he expected producers' adherence in March to their supply cut pledges to "be higher than the previous couple of months." The minister, Essam al-Marzouq, also said he saw "positive indications" in the decline of global oil stocks. However, that price rally has also encouraged production in other countries such as the United States, filling some of the gap left by OPEC-led cuts.

Copper
London Metal Exchange copper had slipped 0.7 percent to $5,792 a tonne, having broken support at its 100-day moving average at $5,800 a tonne. A stronger dollar eroded the purchasing power of commodity buyers paying with other currencies. U.S. job growth slowed sharply in March, but a drop in the unemployment rate to a near 10-year low of 4.5 percent suggested labour market strength remained intact. Still, a plethora of mine disruptions this year, including at the world's two biggest copper mines in Indonesia and Chile, have tightened the copper market, supporting prices. LME copper inventories remained at the lowest since early March. Prices are expected to remain rangebound in near term.

Soybean
Chicago Board of Trade May soybean futures closed down on Monday as traders adjusted positions a day ahead of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's monthly supply/demand reports, analysts said. The CBOT May soybean contract settled down 1/4 cent at $9.41-3/4 per bushel. The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported weekly export inspections of U.S. soybeans at 832,957 tonnes, above trade expectations of between 450,000-650,000. However, analysts expect the USDA in its monthly supply/demand report on Tuesday to raise its forecasts of the soybean harvests in Brazil and Argentina. CBOT May soyoil ended down 0.27 cent at 31.35 cents per lb, pressured in part by declines in allied Malaysian palm oil futures. CBOT May soymeal closed up $1.70 at $309.10 per short ton. The trading volume of soybean, soymeal and soyoil is expected at 148,594, 86,349, 118,046 lots respectively.

Dealing Room, ICBC Beijing Branch
Lv Yan