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ICBC Trading Strategies of Precious Metals and Commodities Market-April 7, 2017
 

I. Precious Metals
Gold
Gold edged lower on Thursday, pressured by a firmer dollar on the back of upbeat U.S. unemployment data and as some investors sold to redeem profits after bullion's recent advance. Spot gold was down 0.24 percent at $1,251.76 ounce, retreating from an overnight peak of $1,258.96. The most active U.S. gold futures for June delivery settled up $4.8, or 0.38 percent, at $1,253.30 per ounce after climbing as much as 1 percent to $1,260.90.
The dollar index extended gains after data showed new applications for U.S. unemployment benefits last week recorded their biggest drop in nearly two years. Those claims, however, will have no bearing on March U.S. non-farm payrolls data on Friday, which analysts say could be key for short-term direction of the gold market. Investors were also cautious ahead of the meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping due later on Thursday, the first between the world's two most powerful leaders.
On technical front, the MACD momentum column continued to contract, about to form a dead cross at highs. On the 4-hour chart, the K-line had been falling for 3 straight days, indicating a bearish tone. Investors shall be cautious, with support and resistance at $1,248 and $1,255 respectively.

Silver
Spot silver dropped 0.44 percent to $18.19 an ounce. Technically, the MACD momentum column continued to contract, about to form a dead cross at highs - a bearish tone for silver. In the medium term, the white metal will form a M-shape, a sigh for persistent fall, if Friday’s non-farm payroll report weighed on precious metals and pulled prices below the 200-day moving average. We maintain our view that the resistance and support can be found at $18.45 and $18 respectively.

II. Commodities
Crude Oil
Oil prices rose by 1 percent on Thursday, posting a fourth straight day of gains, but analysts remained cautious about record-high U.S. crude inventories. Brent crude futures settled up 53 cents, or 1 percent, at $54.89 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 1.1 percent, or 55 cents a barrel, to $51.70. The gains gave crude its highest close since a March 8 rout. Crude prices have been rebounding in the last two weeks from that decline. Refinery runs are starting to increase as the U.S. summer driving season approaches and gasoline inventories have been declining.
On technical front, prices crossed above the 50-day and 100-day moving average successively, fueling bullish sentiment. Oil is expected to consolidate at $51.83 before testing $53.

Copper
Copper closed lower on Thursday with investors largely cautious ahead of the first meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. The United States is targeting a reduction in China's $347 billion goods trade surplus through tougher enforcement of trade laws and anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties. The metal had posted its biggest daily rise in nearly two months on Wednesday, climbing 2 percent as Chinese buyers returned to the market after a break. However, indications that the Federal Reserve might start paring back its vast asset holdings this year also curbed appetite for cyclical assets during Thursday. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange closed down 0.6 percent at $5,858 a tonne. Australian miner South32 Ltd cut output forecasts on Thursday after a fire at its Cannington silver and lead mine.
On chart, the momentum column of daily MACD index still grew slowly despite that a golden cross had formed. Investors shall closely watch on the meeting between Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart.

Soybean
U.S. soybeans fell along with wheat and corn on Thursday. Chicago Board of Trade May soybeans declined 2-3/4 cents at $9.41-1/2, but held above the multi-month low hit on Tuesday. Record high U.S. planting and expectation for bump harvest in South Africa weighed on soybeans. But fears of harvest delays in Argentina provided a floor. U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported export sales at 482,000 metric tons of old crop, in line with market consensus, and higher-than-expected 395,000 metric tons of new crop,


Dealing Room, ICBC Beijing Branch
Huang Han


(2017-04-07)
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