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ICBC Trading Strategies of Precious Metals and Commodities Market - July 26, 2018
 

I. Precious Metals
Gold

Gold rose 0.6 percent to $1,231.56 per ounce on Wednesday as the dollar slipped after leaders from the United States and the European Union agreed to deescalate a transatlantic trade conflict, and U.S. economic data came short of expectations.

U.S. President Donald Trump and the European Union's chief executive, Jean-Claude Juncker, agreed on Wednesday to work toward eliminating trade barriers on industrial goods, as Trump appeared to give ground on his threat to impose car tariffs.

They agreed to pull together a "high-level working group" to negotiate the tariff, subsidy and non-tariff barrier reductions. Trump and Juncker said after a White House meeting that they agreed to hold sweeping trade talks that also cover increased European purchases of American soybeans and liquefied natural gas (LNG) and reducing barriers to transatlantic trade in services, chemicals, pharmaceuticals and medical products.

Sales of new U.S. single-family homes fell to an eight-month low in June and data for the prior month was revised sharply lower, the latest indications that the housing market was slowing down. The moderation in housing is largely driven by supply constraints, but there are concerns that persistent weakness could eventually spill over to the broader economy.

On chart, gold could find support and resistance at the 10-day moving average of $1,230 and the 20-day moving average of $1,241 respectively.

Silver

Silver gained 0.9 percent to $15.58 an ounce, after reaching an eight-day high of $15.63. Technically, it has breached the resistance of $15.50 to close above the 10-day moving average, reversing recent losing course.

Considering the golden cross in the MACD index, the rebound is expected to continue in the near term with resistance at the 20-day moving average of $15.75. But silver prices will be still trapped in the downtrends before the resistance is breached.

II. Commodities
Crude Oil

Oil prices rose for the second consecutive day on Wednesday after U.S. government data showed domestic crude inventories fell to their lowest levels since February 2015. Brent crude futures rose 49 cents to settle at $73.93 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 78 cents to settle at $69.30 a barrel.

U.S. crude inventories fell 6.1 million barrels in the week to July 20, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed, to 404.9 million barrels, their lowest since February 2015. Analysts had expected a decrease of 2.3 million barrels. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub fell by 1.1 million barrels, EIA said, their lowest since November 2014.

Gasoline stocks fell 2.328 million barrels, EIA data showed, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 713,000-barrel drop. Meanwhile, U.S. Midwest gasoline stockpiles fell to their lowest seasonally since 2015. The International Monetary Fund reported surging inflation in Venezuela, that would cap country’s ability to add supply, also boosting oil prices.

Copper

Copper jumped nearly 3 percent, as the market awaited a resolution to wage talks at the world's largest miner of the industrial metal.

BHP's Escondida mine in Chile said on Tuesday it had made a final offer to the union representing its rank-and-file workers that includes a beefed up contract signing bonus and a 1.5 percent increase in wages. There was no immediate response from the union, which had asked for a 5 percent pay rise.

On chart, copper prices are expected to rebound in the near term after breaching the 20-month moving average.

Soybean

Soybean futures ended slightly higher on a deescalated trade conflict between the United States and the European Union. U.S. President Donald Trump and the European Union's chief executive, Jean-Claude Juncker, agreed on Wednesday to work toward eliminating trade barriers that also cover increased European purchases of American soybeans.

The August soybean contract rose 3-1/4 cents to $8.6-3/4 a bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade. The November soybean gained 3-1/4 cents to $8.75-3/4 a bushel. August soymeal closed up $2.1 to $330.0 a tonne. August soyoil firmed 0.17 cents to 28.41 cents.

 

Dealing Room, ICBC Beijing Branch
                        Lv Yan


(2018-07-26)
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