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ICBC Trading Strategies of Precious Metals and Commodities Market--February 4, 2017
 

I. Precious Metals
Gold
Gold was little changed on Friday, erasing earlier losses as the dollar came under pressure from a U.S. payrolls report that flagged up weak wage growth last month, weakening the case for near-term interest rate hikes. While U.S. job growth surged more than expected in January as construction firms and retailers ramped up hiring, wages barely rose. Spot gold was unchanged at $1,215.75 an ounce, off an earlier low of $1,207.10. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 227,000 jobs, the largest gain in four months. The unemployment rate, however, rose one-tenth of a percentage point to 4.8 percent. Markets seem to be looking at the soft wage data, which signal rather weak inflationary pressure, and therefore less need for the Fed to raise interest rates. Gold is on track to rise around 2 percent this week as the dollar headed for a fourth weekly drop on worries about Donald Trump's presidential style and a lack of clarity on rate hikes. Holdings of the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Shares, rose for a second day on Thursday by 1.5 tonnes to 811.22 tonnes.

Silver
Silver was down 0.2 percent at $17.40, lingering around the 100-day moving average. The metal remained at the higher range with key support of the 100-day moving average. It is expected to keep consolidating between $17.40 to $17.90 with higher likelihood for further increase. 

II. Commodities
Crude Oil
Oil prices rose on Friday after the United States imposed sanctions on some Iranian individuals and entities, days after the White House rebuked Tehran for a ballistic missile test. The strong U.S. January jobs figure was also supportive, as it suggests ongoing strength in energy demand. Front-month U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled up 29 cents, to $53.83. The contract gained more than 1 percent for the week. Brent crude futures settled 25 cents higher at $56.81 a barrel, giving it a 2 percent gain on the week, the first significant weekly rise this year. Under the sanctions, announced by the U.S. Treasury, 13 individuals and 12 entities cannot access the U.S. financial system or deal with U.S. companies. They are also subject to "secondary sanctions," which means foreign companies and individuals are prohibited from dealing with them, or risk being blacklisted by the United States. This is the first move by the administration of President Donald Trump against Iran. It follows his vows during the 2016 campaign to get tough on Tehran.

Copper
Copper prices slid to their lowest in nearly two weeks on Friday after workers restarted wage talks at the biggest copper mine and China increased its interest rates, enhancing supply outlook and cramping down demand expectations. Workers at BHP Billiton's Escondida copper mine in Chile, the world's biggest, prepared to re-enter dialogue with the company on Friday after BHP solicited government mediation in a bid to avoid a strike. Copper hit a two-month peak earlier in the week when workers rejected a company wage offer and voted for a strike. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange closed down 1.9 percent at $5,772 a tonne, the weakest since Jan. 23 and the third straight loss.

Soybean
U.S. soybean futures fell on Friday, pressured by expectations for a huge crop in South America. CBOT March soyoil crossed below the 200-day moving average to close down $0.73 at $33.86. Private analytics firm Informa Economics on Friday forecast the Brazil soybean harvest at 106.5 million tonnes, and kept its forecast for Argentina harvest at 55 million tonnes. CBOT March soybeans were down 22-1/4 cents or 2.1 percent at $10.27 a bushel. Traded volumes of soybean, soymeal and soyoil were expected to stood at 175,919 lots, 64,491 lots, and 118,266 lots respectively.


Dealing Room, ICBC Beijing Branch
Lv Yan


(2017-02-04)
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