I. Precious Metals
Gold
Gold rose to a five-week high on Monday as markets reassessed the outlook for the U.S. economy after Donald Trump is inaugurated as president later this month, taking support from the falling dollar and lower U.S. Treasury yields. The metal posted its biggest weekly increase in two months last week. Strong outflows from gold-backed exchange-traded funds have also lessened of late, while seasonal buying in the big Asian gold markets, where India is deep into wedding season and China is approaching the Lunar New Year, has been strong. A tiny dip in the dollar and weaker equities are enough to support gold, which is starting to benefit from greater stability in emerging markets. Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren called for the U.S. central bank to step up its pace of interest rate increases, while Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said the possibility of a fiscal boost under Trump has shifted economic risks to the upside. These elements will continue to provide a floor to gold prices. But Fed’s interest rate hike is expected to keep bullion under pressure in the medium and longer term.
On technical front, gold crossed through previous resistance of $1,168 an ounce and kept rangebound above the mark. The daily MACD points to a bullish tone, suggesting retaining upside momentum. Gold is expected to move up in coming sessions with the next resistance at the 50-day moving average of $1,193.

Silver
Silver continued its upward momentum, up 0.8 percent at $16.61 an ounce. Technically, silver sees further upward momentum. We believe that the metal is likely to test the resistance of the 50-day moving average of $16.81 in near term. Overall, it would track gold’s movement.

II. Commodities
Crude Oil
Oil prices tumbled by 4 percent on Monday on concern that record Iraqi crude exports and rising U.S. output would undermine OPEC's efforts to curb global oversupply. U.S. crude futures settled down $2.03 at $51.96 a barrel, while Brent futures settled down $2.16 at $54.94 a barrel. In Iraq, OPEC's second-biggest producer, oil exports from the southern Basra ports reached a record high of 3.51 million barrels per day (bpd) in December, the oil ministry said. Iraq's oil ministry underscored that the high levels from the south would not affect the country's decision to cut January production to comply with the OPEC agreement. OPEC members agreed in November on the first deal to cut oil output since 2008, limiting supplies to 32.5 million bpd starting Jan. 1 for six months. But some remained concerned over the feasibility of the cuts. With the big numbers coming out of the southern port of Basra for December, it's implying that Iraq may be the first big crack in the wall of the OPEC agreement.

Copper
Copper closed flat at $5,591 per tonne on Monday. Last Thursday, copper prices hit their highest in more than two weeks at $5,698 a tonne. Investors cut bets ahead of U.S. non-farm payroll report, but expectations of robust growth in China and a surge in the yuan supported optimism about demand in the world's largest consumer of industrial metals. The daily MACD indicates a balance between market bulls and bears. A correction is expected before the metal resumes its upside momentum.

Soybean
U.S. soybean futures firmed on Monday, settling up 1 percent on solid export report and some concerns about rain in parts of Argentina curtailing its crop production, traders said. Soymeal and soyoil futures also rose as traders built positions ahead of government’s supply and demand report due to release on Thursday. Rains in central and northeastern Argentina threatened to flood soybean fields which are expected to see bumpy harvest, but the latest forecasts called for improvements in the coming weeks. The USDA said on Monday morning that soybean export inspections totalled 1.457 million tonnes in the latest reporting week, exceeding the high end of trade forecasts that ranged from 1.1 million tonnes to 1.4 million tonnes. Chicago Board of Trade March soybean futures rose 10-1/2 cents at $10.05-1/4 a bushel.

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Li Nan