I. Precious Metals
Gold
Gold surged above $1,200 an ounce to its highest in seven weeks on Thursday as the dollar fell after U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's long-awaited news conference gave few details on economic policy. Spot gold was up 0.5 percent at $1,197.64 an ounce, after touching $1,206.98, its loftiest since Nov. 23. Trump delivered a wide-ranging briefing on Wednesday that lasted longer than expected but contained no details on tax cuts and infrastructure spending, analysts said. That sent the dollar index sliding to the lowest in nearly five weeks. The outlook for U.S. rates may become a little clearer when Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen appears at a webcast town hall meeting with educators on Thursday. This move can go a bit further before there’s more clarity on U.S. economic policy. This round of rally is boosted by market doubts on whether Trump’s promises would be delivered after he takes office.
Gold will run out of steam after crossing above $1,200. Prices has risen around 7 percent after hitting a 10-1/2-month low on December 15. On news front, the dollar would rebound once signs show that Trump administration will push forward its economic plans. Technically, gold is about to breach above the 50-day moving average after a three-week winning streak. The metal is expected to meet the mid-band of Bollinger path at around $1,230, a possible resistance on its upward momentum.

Silver
Silver was up 0.4 percent at $16.79 on Thursday after hitting a four-week peak of $16.98. The metal pared gains later on, and closed below $16.8 with support at the 50-day moving average. Technical indicators could barely provide any support for it to breach the heavy resistance between $16.8 to $17.2. As the 50-day moving average moves further down and the MACD index turns sour, silver is more likely to reverse its course. Investors shall keep an eye on its support at $16.6.

II. Commodities
Crude Oil
Oil prices rose more than 1 percent on Thursday on news that key crude exporters, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, were cutting production to reduce a global crude glut, and on forecasts of record demand in China. U.S. crude futures settled up 76 cents to $53.01 a barrel. Brent crude oil settled up 91 cents at $56.01. Oil prices have stayed in a range in the last month-and-a-half, with buyers encouraged by news of output cuts by major world producers but wary of past tendencies by these nations to produce more than agreed. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed in November to cut production. The deal is successfully enforced up to now. Russia's Energy Minister Alexander Novak said the country was starting to implement its own planned cuts, in conjunction with an agreement among non-OPEC producers. China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) said the country's net crude imports will rise 5.3 percent to 396 million tonnes in 2017, with crude consumption headed for a record 594 million tonnes or 12 million bpd this year. The country's top state-owned oil producer, however, cautioned that demand growth for products like gasoline and diesel will slow and the domestic fuel glut will remain. The market is in a consolidation pattern, and as we get more and more signs of them implementing cuts we'll have another test of $55.

Copper
Copper hit a one-month high on Thursday, as the dollar weakened on U.S. president-elect Donald Trump's failure to give clear policy details at his first news conference since November. At his press conference on Wednesday, Trump gave no details on tax cuts and infrastructure spending, two factors that had fuelled a five-week rally in stocks and a sell-off in global bond markets. That knocked the dollar to a five-week low against a currency basket, boosting dollar-priced assets. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange closed up 2.2 percent at $5,842 a tonne. Overnight copper hit its highest since Dec. 12 at $5,869 a tonne, also helped by supply concerns. Freeport-McMoRan and other miners halted copper concentrate shipments in response to an Indonesian government ban on exports of unprocessed metal ores that took effect on Thursday. The move sparked some speculative buying.

Soybean
U.S. soybean futures hit a 3-1/2 week high on Thursday after the U.S. Department of Agriculture cut its estimate of the 2016 soy harvest and lowered its forecast of domestic inventories. Chicago Board of Trade March soybean futures settled up 28-3/4 cents at $10.40-1/4 per bushel after touching $10.41-1/4, the contract's highest since Dec. 19. The USDA also lowered its forecast of U.S. 2016 soybean production to 430.7 million bushels, from 436.1 million in November, in contrast with market estimates that it will do otherwise. The USDA also cut its forecast of unit production and soybean planting area. Traded volumes of soybean, soymeal and soyoil were expected to stood at 251,373 lots, 119,090 lots, and 94,595 lots respectively.

Dealing Room, ICBC Beijing Branch
Lv Yan