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ICBC Trading Strategies of Precious Metals and Commodities Market--January 4, 2017
 

I. Precious Metals
Gold
Precious metals rose cross board with gold paring early losses to rise 0.6 percent in the previous trading session. Bullion fell earlier as the dollar hit a 14-year high against a basket of currencies after data showed U.S. manufacturing activity grew more than expected in November. But the yellow metal rebounded as early gains in stocks and other assets perceived as risky gave up gains and investors fled to save-haven bullion. Among other precious metals, platinum and palladium both jumped by more than 4 percent as investors scrambled for position as the new year got under way.
On technical front, both the MACD and the momentum index showed that gold retained steam. But that was not strong enough to push it up from current range-bound. The support and resistance can be found at $1,122 and $1,180 respectively.

Silver
Silver tracked gold, posting sharp gains of over 2 percent. Technically, the momentum and MACD index diverged, suggesting a bearish and bullish tone respectively. Together with a long upper shadow line formed yesterday, the white metal must have met heavy resistance. The support and resistance can be found at $15.6 and $16.5 respectively.

II. Commodities
Crude Oil
Oil prices slid more than 2 percent on the first trading day of 2017 as the U.S. dollar rallied to its highest level since 2002 and traders took profits. Before the slide began, both contracts hit their highest levels since July 2015 on hopes that a deal between OPEC and other big oil exporters to cut production, which kicked in on Sunday, will drain a global supply glut. Brent futures fell $1.35, or 2.4 percent, to settle at $55.47 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude lost $1.39, or 2.6 percent, to settle at $52.33, its lowest close in two weeks.

Copper
Copper retreated from a two-week high on Tuesday as a stronger dollar outweighed expectations of solid consumption in the United States and China, where economic data showed signs of improvement. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange closed 0.6 percent down at $5,500 a tonne, having hit its highest since Dec. 19 at $5,616.50 in earlier trade.

Soybean
U.S. soybean futures fell to a six-week low on Tuesday on improving South American crop prospects and uncertainty about export demand from China, analysts said. The benchmark Chicago Board of Trade March soybean futures contract settled down 9 cents at $9.95 per bushel after dipping to $9.94-1/2, its lowest since Nov. 18. March soymeal fell for the third consecutive day, closing down $4.5 at $312.1 a tonne. March soyoil was up 0.15 cents to 34.81 cents.


Dealing Room, ICBC Beijing Branch
Yang Hui


(2017-01-04)
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