I. Precious Metals
Gold
Gold rose to its highest price in one month on Thursday as the dollar slipped further below a 14-year peak hit earlier this week and minutes from the central bank's December meeting showed uncertainty about economic policy changes. Spot gold rose to its highest since Dec. 5 at $1,184 an ounce and was up 1.5 percent at $1,180. Although U.S. growth is improving, there shouldn't be any further significant appreciation in the dollar after the strong run of the past few months, supportive for dollar-denominated gold. Data showed U.S. private employers added 153,000 jobs in December, below economists' expectations. The dollar is expected to extend losses against a basket of six major currencies in the event of a disappointing nonfarm payroll report due on Friday. Also support to gold is that the dollar usually goes weak in the first quarter due to a lackluster economy out of bad weather.
On technical front, gold welcomes clear signal for reverse as the MACD shrank sharply below the axis zero, and the express and slow line turned upward. The 50-week moving average of $1,201 converged with the downward path at the key mark of $1,200. Bullion is expected to rise further to hit the aforementioned resistances.

Silver
Silver was up 0.85 percent at $16.56 ,crossing above the key resistance of $16.6. Technically, silver sees further upward momentum and is quite likely to breach the 50-day moving average. The movement between $16.80 and $17 will determine its performance in the first quarter. Tracking gold, the white metal is expected to see a round of rally as the dollar pulls back.

II. Commodities
Crude Oil
Oil prices rose on Thursday in an up-and-down session, lifted by news that Saudi Arabia had cut production to meet OPEC's agreement to reduce output after prices fell on data showing a surprisingly large increase in U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories. West Texas Intermediate crude settled up 50 cents to $53.76 a barrel. Brent crude rose 43 cents to settle at $56.89 a barrel. Oil has rallied 23 percent since mid-November. U.S. crude stocks fell 7 million barrels to end the year, the Energy Information Administration said, but stocks of gasoline and distillates surged as refiners ramped up production to reduce crude inventories, a year-end practice to avoid higher taxes. Saudi Arabia cut oil output in January by at least 486,000 barrels a day to 10.06 million barrels a day. That would mean the world's largest crude producer was holding up its end of a November agreement by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Oil prices are expected to rise further as the dollar pulled back.

Copper
Copper slipped on Thursday as investors cut bets on higher prices, although expectations of robust growth in China and a surge in the yuan supported optimism about demand in the world's largest consumer of industrial metals. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange closed down 1.2 percent at $5,580 a tonne. Investors were also hedging their bets ahead of U.S. non-farm payroll data due to be released on Friday. China's yuan rose over 600 points or almost 1 percent, the largest single-day gains in 11 months, against the U.S. dollar on Thursday to close at an almost one-month closing high. The People's Bank of China set the midpoint rate at a nearly three-week high. The offshore yuan crossed above several key marks, breaching through 6.79 per dollar to an almost two-month high. A surging yuan and weaker dollar index would provide a support to copper.

Soybean
U.S. soybean futures eased on a round of profit taking. But losses were limited as investors worried about the harvest in Argentina due to weather setbacks. Argentine farmers are expected to plant 19.3 million hectares with soybeans, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said on Thursday, lowering its previous 19.6 million hectare estimate. CBOT March soybeans ended down 2-3/4 cents at $10.12-1/2 a bushel. March soymeal was down $0.9 to $318.2 a tonne. March soyoil inched up 0.01 cents to 35.22 cents. The trading volume of the CBOT soybean, soymeal and soyoil was expected at 90,218 lots, 58,399 lots and 85,408 lots respectively.

Dealing Room, ICBC Beijing Branch
Lv Yan