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ICBC Trading Strategies of Precious Metals and Commodities Market--November 23, 2016
 

I. Precious Metals
Gold
Gold edged lower on Tuesday after U.S. equities hit all-time highs on market expectations for higher growth and more spending from a Donald Trump presidency. Trump's victory in the Nov. 8 U.S. election initially saw a flight to safe-haven assets such as gold but the trend quickly reversed as the dollar and bond yields surged on expectations of higher U.S. spending and interest rates. Adding further pressure on gold was the expected rise in U.S. interest rates in December, traders and analysts said. The world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, said its holdings fell 0.71 percent to 908.77 tonnes on Monday. Holdings have fallen 3.6 percent so far this month.
On technical front, gold was lingering around $1,210. The MACD index formed a long negative momentum column, suggesting still heavy downward bearish pressure. But the RSI pointed to a oversold range, meaning accumulating rebound demand. The support and resistance can be found at $1,207 and $1,240 respectively.

Silver
Silver remained rangebound at lows, up 0.2 percent to $16.58 an ounce. The MACD index still showed strong downward momentum, while the RSI index approached oversold range, indicating demand for correction in coming sessions. Silver is expected to be kept at lows in near term amid a bearish environment for precious metals under the impact of growing expectations over interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

II. Commodities
Crude Oil
Oil ended little changed on Tuesday in volatile trade that saw prices rise and fall by $1 a barrel depending on the latest comment from OPEC officials at a technical conference in Vienna on whether the cartel members would agree to an output cut. Officials at the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting tried to hammer out the details of an agreement to cut output before a formal meeting on Nov. 30. Brent futures gained 22 cents, or 0.45 percent, to settle at $49.12 a barrel, its highest close since the end of October, while U.S. crude lost 21 cents, or 0.44 percent, to finish at $48.03 following reports the 14-member cartel would defer a decision on a deal until the Nov. 30 meeting due to the opposition of Iran and Iraq. While a ceiling for overall OPEC production may be agreed by Nov. 30, it is unclear whether clear quotas per member state would be set. Some countries, such as Nigeria, Iraq, Libya and Iran, argue they should be exempt because their output has been hit by conflict or sanctions.

Copper
Copper hit a one-week high on Tuesday, powered by signs of tighter supply and as investors betting on rising U.S. inflation and a further depreciation of the yuan bought the metal as a hedge. World stocks climbed as investors stuck to the view that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's spending policies will spur growth and inflation, while oil prices hit their highest this month before retreating. That outlook got a further boost after data showing a surge in U.S. existing home sales last month cemented bets on multiple rate hikes going forward. London Metal Exchange copper ended up 1 percent at $5,613 a tonne after hitting a one-week high of $5,687 earlier. Traders noted fresh buying by momentum-based funds.

Soybean
Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures hit a four-month high on Tuesday on strength in Chinese soy markets and technical buying, analysts said. Chicago Board of Trade soybeans for January delivery settled up 9-3/4 cents at $10.30 per bushel after reaching $10.33-1/4, the contract's highest since July 20. Technical buying accelerated after the contract breached above $10.31, the peak hit on October 27. Soybeans also drew support from uncertainty about crop weather as the South American growing season gets under way. But the weather conditions are good by now.

Dealing Room, ICBC Beijing Branch
Li Nan

Note: The information herein is provided for informational purpose only. You are liable for the risk incurred to the investments based on this information provided herein. 


(2016-11-23)
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