I. Precious Metals
Gold
Gold prices fell on Monday, posting their biggest one-day drop in five weeks as the dollar and stocks rallied on news Hillary Clinton would not face criminal charges over her use of a private email server. This boosted her chances of winning the U.S. presidential election on Tuesday. The final result is expected on Wednesday. If Clinton wins, there's going to be a further correction in prices and gold may even go down to $1,250, traders said. Stock markets around the globe surged along with the U.S. dollar, while the VIX index, dubbed the "fear index" of U.S. stocks, posted its biggest one-day fall in over four months. These lifted risk appetite and weighed on gold.
On the technical front, resistance on gold was seen around the key mark of $100. Without breakthrough, sharp losses can hardly take place. Support can be found around the 200-day moving average of $1,270 an ounce. Under current circumstances, downside will be limited in near term.

Silver
Silver opened lower and pared some losses later at $18.19 an ounce, diverging with gold. On the technical front, it lingered between the 50-day moving average at $17.50 and 200-day moving average at $18.50. In historical trend, silver can hardly buck the downside trend of gold. Investors shall be cautious about possible short-covering.

II. Commodities
Crude Oil
Oil prices settled more than 1 percent higher on Monday, supported by news that U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton will not face charges over her emails. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled at $44.89 per barrel, up 82 cents, or 1.9 percent. Brent crude ended 57 cents, or 1.3 percent, higher at $46.15 a barrel. Will there be a larger rally depends on the data in the future. It’s not her policies for the rally, but "fear of the unknown" in the case of a Trump win. Fundamentals front, U.S. crude inventories rose 1.1 million barrels last week after a record build in the previous week. Many analysts doubt the OPEC’s ability to coordinate a cut sufficient to balance the market. Oil prices are expected to trade around $48 in near term.

Copper
Copper reached its highest price since March on Monday after the FBI cleared U.S. presidential candidate Hillary Clinton of wrongdoing after further investigation of her email practices, boosting global markets before Tuesday's election. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange closed up 2 percent to $5,098 a tonne, the highest since March 18. Supporting copper are moves in China to lift power investments by 83 percent over the 2016-2020 Five-Year Plan. The base metal remained strong steam in near term.

Soybean
U.S. soybean futures rose for the third straight session on Monday, boosted by robust export demand, especially from China, the world’s largest importer. Chicago Board of Trade soybean and soymeal prices gained, while soyoil, wheat and corn futures eased due to a firmer dollar. Traders squared positions ahead of the supply-demand report of the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The USDA said exporters sold 132,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China and 135,000 tonnes of U.S. soymeal to the Philippines. The USDA also reported cumulative export inspections of 2.6 million bushels. CBOT January soybean futures finished 7-3/4 cents higher at $9.98-1/2 per bushel.

Dealing Room, ICBC Beijing Branch
Li Nan

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