I. Precious Metals
Gold
Gold prices rose on Tuesday, supported by weakness in the U.S. dollar index, though receding worries about the outcome of the U.S. election and expectations of a U.S. rate increase in December could mean lower levels. Recent weakness in the U.S. dollar provided a floor to gold. U.S. gold futures settled up 0.50 percent at $1,262.90. The U.S. currency fell by as much as 0.3 percent, prior to paring losses as it retreated from Monday's seven-month high against a basket of currencies. U.S. consumer prices rose in September, suggesting a steady build-up of inflation pressures that could keep the Fed on track to raise interest rates in December. The Federal Reserve is expected to take actions in December, a weight on gold in the coming month. There's also more optimism that Hillary Clinton will probably win the election, a downbeat news for the yellow metal.
On chart, spot gold rose modestly, but was kept below the 200-day moving average of $1,267. The MACD index showed mounting bullish bets in near term, suggesting gold might continue to rise with resistance at $1,267 and $1,276. In case of breakthrough, it will move rapidly toward the 100-day moving average of $1,313. The support can be found at $1,250. Once the level is breached, this round of rally would be snapped.

Silver
Silver tracked gold and was up 1 percent during the session before closing at $17.62 an ounce. On chart, silver also moves in tandem with gold with the difference that the former still holds above the 200-day moving average. We believe the level would become the bottom of the white metal, and resistance can be found at around $18.14.

II. Commodities
Crude Oil
Oil prices settled up on Tuesday on expectations of OPEC output curbs, then extended gains in post-settlement trade as an industry group's data showed an unexpected draw in U.S. crude inventories last week. Crude stockpiles fell 3.8 million barrels to 467.1 million barrels in the week to Oct. 14, the American Petroleum Institute reported. Analysts had expected an increase of 2.7 million barrels. U.S. crude stockpiles built 4.9 million barrels in the week to Oct. 7. Brent crude settled up 16 cents, or 0.3 percent, at $51.68 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude ended the session up 35 cents, or 0.7 percent, at $50.29. Crude prices have gained some 13 percent since the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries proposed on Sept. 27 its first output cut or freeze in eight years to rein in a global crude glut. The group gathers on Nov. 30 for its policy meeting. Doubts on whether OPEC will reach a deal that satisfies all 14 members has stalled the rally at around $50 a barrel. Most in Saudi-led OPEC need higher prices to repair economic damage after crude fell to almost $26 a barrel this year from 2014 highs above $100. Some members of the cartel, like Iran, prefer not to cut output.

Copper
Major base metals prices rose on Tuesday, boosted by strong credit data in top metals consumer China and a weaker dollar. Chinese banks extended 1.22 trillion yuan ($181 billion) in new loans in September, indicating the central bank is keeping policy accommodative to support economic growth. The new yuan loans hit the highest level since June, helping to lift sentiment. LME copper finished 0.1 percent firmer at $4,681 after ending flat in the previous session, not far from Friday's one-month trough of $4,623.25.

Soybean
U.S. soybean futures fell on Tuesday, pressured by a weak cash market after hitting a 3-week high earlier in the session, traders said. Soyoil and soymeal futures also slipped. Soyoil pulled back by profit-taking after reaching the highest since August 2014. The spread of spot soybean lowered in the Midwest of U.S. due to ample supply for strong export demand. Soybeans drew early support from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's confirmation of private sales 706,500 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China. Chicago Board of Trade November soybeans ended down 5-3/4 cents at $9.72-1/2 per bushel.

Dealing Room, ICBC Beijing Branch
Li Nan

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