I. Precious Metals
Gold
Gold eased slightly on Thursday after three days of gains as the U.S. dollar rose and the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged, maintaining the parameters of its 1.74 trillion euro ($1.95 trillion) asset buying scheme. The ECB has provided extraordinary stimulus in recent years, cutting interest rates into negative territory and pushing the cost of credit to all-time lows. Ultra-low rates tend to support gold, though that is often offset by the impact of a weaker euro. The dollar index rose to a seven-month high against a basket of currencies, extending gains after a stronger-than-expected U.S. existing home sales report. Gold was down at $1,266.10 an ounce after tapping a two-week high at $1,273.82. Democrat Hillary Clinton kept taking lead after the final U.S. presidential debate, improving risk appetite and pressuring on gold in near term. Traders are closely watching U.S. data for clues about when the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, which will determine the yellow metal’s moves.

On chart, gold is traded around the 200-day moving average of $1,268.81 during recent sessions. On Thursday, it pulled back from the level once again and closed at $1,266.26. The MACD index pointed to be bullish, suggesting that gold is expected to move up in coming sessions with resistance at $1,276.

Silver
Silver fell 0.85 percent at $17.49 an ounce, snapping a three-day winning streak. A stronger dollar index, to some degree, weighed on precious metals. Technically, silver showed the same features with gold. The MACD incdx pointed to strong market bulls. We believe the white metal would trade around the 200-day moving average with support and resistance at $17.36 and $18.14 respectively.

II. Commodities
Crude Oil
Oil prices settled down more than 2 percent on Thursday, as a resurgent dollar encouraged players to take profit on the previous day's rally that sent U.S. crude to 15-month highs. The dollar hit seven-month highs against a basket of currencies and a three-month peak versus the euro after the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged and U.S. data showed home resales surged in September. Benchmark Brent crude for December delivery settled down $1.29, or 2.5 percent, at $51.38 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude's November contract , which expired as the front-month, fell $1.17, or 2.3 percent, to finish at $50.43. WTI's December contract, which will be front-month from Friday, slid $1.19 to settle at $50.63. It's also to do with the dust settling on yesterday's report and the realization that it wasn't quite as bullish. The chief executive of Russia's Rosneft has said the state oil producer has potential to add as much as 200 million tonnes a year, or about 4 million barrels per day, to its output, triggering concerns over Russia’s oil output.

Copper
LME three-month copper fell 0.4 percent to end at $4,652 a tonne, but prices are holding above one-month lows of $4,623.25 hit last Friday. Copper fell as steps by China to cool its real estate market, a key metals user, dampened buying interest. Fueled by a housing frenzy, China's economic growth likely steadied at 6.7 percent in the third quarter. The metal is expected to remain at current level in near term as the market remains worried about the negative impact of cooling measures on the property market.

Soybean
U.S. soybean futures fell on Thursday, retreating from early advances as gains in the U.S. dollar triggered broad-based selling in commodities, analysts said. Report on heavy harvest in the Midwestern of U.S. also dragged prices down. Soymean and soyoil futures also dropped. The CBOT November soybeans fell 6 cents or 0.6 percent to $9.75-1/2 a bushel after hitting a four-week high. The USDA reported export sales of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at just over 2 million tonnes, well above a range of trade expectations for 1.0 million to 1.3 million tonnes.

Dealing Room, ICBC Beijing Branch
Li Nan

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