I. Precious Metals
Gold
Gold was little changed on Thursday, pressured by a persistently strong dollar as the market awaits more signs about the timing of an expected U.S. interest rate rise from the Federal Reserve. Bets that the Fed will raise rates have driven the dollar to nine-month highs against a basket of currencies this week and limited gains in gold. The dollar index was about 0.3 percent higher on Thursday. Spot gold was up last at $1,268.40 an ounce, trading in a tight range. Physical demand from Asia continues to underpin the market at present, preventing a selloff ahead of an expected Fed interest rate increase in December. Gold’s losses were as a result limited despite of a continuing stronger dollar. SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed ETF, said its holdings fell 1.49 percent to 942.59 tonnes on Wednesday.
On chart, gold traded below the 200-day moving average of $1,272.13, with resistance at around $1,276 in near term. We believe the yellow metal would sustain rangebound in near term, but maintain our bullish view on its long-term outlook. Investors may closely watch the movement around this level. A breakthrough may break the rangebound pattern, and trigger an upturn trend. The level of $1,250 may continue to provide a floor.

Silver
Silver was up 0.1 percent at $17.60 an ounce, keeping trading within range. On chart, the MACD index indicates that silver retains its steam, and is expected to move up along the 200-day moving average. The white metal would find support and resistance at $17.39 and $18.15 respectively.

II. Commodities
Crude Oil
Oil settled higher on Thursday, as commitments from Gulf OPEC members to cut production assuaged some lingering doubts in the market about cooperation from other producers. The international benchmark Brent crude was up 49 cents, or 1 percent, at $50.47 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 54 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $49.72. Saudi Arabia and its Gulf Opec allies are willing to cut 4 per cent from their peak oil output, energy ministers from the Gulf countries told their Russian counterpart this week, sources familiar with the matter disclosed. The offer was made at a closed-door meeting in Riyadh, where the ministers met on Sunday. But Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak told the officials that Moscow would not cut output, but rather freeze it at current levels, the sources said. Iraq, the second-largest producer in the OPEC, has called for an exemption from output curbs as it needed more money to fight Islamic State militants. Its stance, however, would be opposed by Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries. The expectation was that Libya, Nigeria and Iran should be exempt as their output had been hit by wars and sanctions, OPEC sources said. On Wednesday, the U.S. Energy Department said domestic crude stocks fell 553,000 barrels last week, the seventh such decline in the last eight weeks, adding to hopes that a long-awaited market rebalancing is taking place.

Copper
Copper hit a two-week high on Thursday as the market focused on the likelihood of stronger demand in China, but gains were limited by reduced speculative activity after a spike earlier this week. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange ended up 1.1 percent at $4,790 a tonne from an earlier $4,797, its lowest since October 13. Prices are up more than 3 percent so far this week. Traders said copper's gains this week had been partly due to Chinese speculative activity, which had receded after China's Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange doubled the charges for intraday trading in thermal coal. China accounts for nearly half of global copper demand estimated at around 22 million tonnes this year. Chinese consumers are expected to import more over coming months due to stronger local demand. Most people are expecting Chinese copper imports to rebound from the lows we saw in August and September. The domestic copper market is tighter, but copper prices over the next three to six months will stay in a $4,600 to $5,000 range.

Soybean
U.S. soybean future rose Thursday on the back of technical buying, big export sales and solid soymeal futures. CBOT November soybeans settled 4-1/4 cents higher at $10.14-1/4 per bushel. The U.S. Department of Agriculture said 2.0454 million tonnes of soybeans were sold last week, in line with market expectations of $1.5 million to 2.5 million tonnes. The USDA said exporters within the past 24 hours sold 129,000 tonnes to unknown destinations and 396,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China, both of which will be delivered from 2016-2017.

Dealing Room, ICBC Beijing Branch
Li Nan

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