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ICBC Trading Strategies of RMB and FX Market-March 7, 2017
 

I. Dollar/yuan
1.China’s yuan market
China's yuan firmed against the dollar on Monday, but at a weaker strength than the midpoint. Market sentiment improved after the forex rates fell below 6.90 per dollar. Big banks injected some dollar to keep yuan’s prices steady. But the result need to be observed as timetable of the Two Sessions overlaps with Fed’s policy meeting.
2. Spread of onshore and offshore yuan
Onshore yuan’s prices were 70 bps higher than offshore yuan.

II. Forex Market
U.S dollar
The dollar rose on Monday, after retreating to a one-week low in early European trading. The dollar edged up 0.1 percent against a basket of world currencies to 101.66, booking gains against the euro after a former French prime minister ruled out standing in the country's presidential elections, a development seen as likely boosting the chances of anti-European Union candidate Marine Le Pen. The dollar also moved around 0.4 percent higher against the Swiss franc, Swedish crown and British pound on the day. We maintain our bullish view on the dollar as the currency retained its steam in anticipation of a March interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve.
Euro
The dollar rose against the euro on Monday after a former French prime minister ruled out standing in the country's presidential elections, a development seen as likely boosting the chances of anti-European Union candidate Marine Le Pen. A poll on Friday showed that if Juppe replaced the scandal-hit Francois Fillon as the center-right candidate, he would likely win the election's first round, with centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron coming second - a scenario that would knock Le Pen out of the race. Although polling suggests the far-right Le Pen would lose to Macron or Fillon in a run-off, investors are mindful of surprise vote outcomes. The euro fell 0.35 percent to $1.0584, dropping after news of Juppe's decision from a two-week high it touched against the dollar earlier in the day. Market unease over elections this year in France, Germany and the Netherlands has constrained the euro, despite improving economic readings across the euro zone, analysts said.

Yen
News that North Korea had fired four ballistic missiles over the weekend and U.S. President Donald Trump's unverified claims that his predecessor, Barack Obama, had wiretapped his correspondence from Trump Tower spurred buying of the safe-haven yen. The dollar fell to 113.90 yen, retreating from Friday's two-week high of 114.74 yen.


(2017-03-07)
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